Response to Rafa Critics

I just posted the following to a site some of you may not visit any more and thought some of you may like to agree or disagree with my logic?

Our squad has looked terribly thin at times this season. However, we have also had one of the worst run of injuries for a long time. In fairness to Rafa he can only work with what he has. He could have gone the Houllier way of doing things by buying what were predominantly average players at the £5 to £14m range. You then end up with a more equalised squad so injuries aren't felt as badly.

However, this didn't work for Houllier (or Roy Evans for that matter), we were always the 'nearly men'. With a limited budget Rafa has tried to bring in players who can make a difference over a season and any of them over say £12m (Torres, Masch, Johnson) have had that affect. We came very close last season but the loss of Alonso together with injuries and the delayed full debut of Aquilani have all had a detrimental affect so far this season. But the ingredients and long term strategy is right in my opinion.

I think Aquilani is a key figure and will re-balance the attack/defence. It isn't working with Masch and Lucas, from an offensive perspective, but they are the best fit pairing at the moment in my opinion, especially given our defensive lapses!

Realistically we don't have the budgets of the top 2 (or some other teams), or the youth development set up of Arsenal. Rafa has recently taken over matters with youth development and some patience is required in this regard. He is having to stage bringing in the star players who can make a difference. Look at what the hacks at the papers say. A few seasons ago we were a one man team (Gerrard), then we were a two man team (Gerrard, Torres) - hopefully towards the end of this season or next we'll be a three man team (Gerrard, Torres and Aquilani). But circumstances dictate this slow progress, not Rafa. Unless of course you want a team filled with average players again?

People continue to take a short term view at a time when a longer one is required. Time for additional quality players to be 'staged in' and the youth development to be overhauled is needed. There is a reason why Rafa was signed for 5 years.

In relation to Aquilani I think Rafa is being ultra cautious with him. In fairness I dread to think what stories will be written if he is crocked in his first full debut. None of us know the full state of his fitness and we need to bide our time for someone who could be an imperative player in the future.

The man eats, sleeps and drinks football. I'm sure he is fully aware of what needs to be done, starting with another striker to 'fill in' when required, once resource is available.

The 'Dubai Effect' Still to be Felt by LFC?

I recently wrote on the potential side step we took in relation to DIC's proposed takeover which fell through. Given the recent goings on in Dubai it is possible that fate dealt us a kind blow during the ownership wrangle. It is unfortunate then that Liverpool FC may still find itself within the turbulence of what is happening in Dubai.

When reading the articles about Dubai last night two notable names kept coming up. Reports suggest that the bank most likely to be affected by the Dubai fall out is our shiny new sponsor Standard Chartered. It is unknown at this juncture as to how indebted the Dubai companies in mention are to Standard Chartered. Worryingly though there is now talk of a second wave to the credit crunch - with our new sponsor at the fore front of it. Standard Chartered fared quite well during the credit crunch, hence their ability to enter into a record breaking (at the time) shirt deal with Liverpool. It is early days with the Dubai 'situation' but Standard Chartered will certainly be a name to keep an eye on.

The other name which has been thrown into the mix of the potentialy affected is RBS. RBS is a different 'kettle of fish' altogether, having been battered by the first wave of the credit crunch. In the blame game part one I put together the timing of their demise and it's impact on Liverpool Football Club. Following the first wave of the credit crunch Liverpool's owners had to pay off £60m of the debt capital. This was despite the club being in a relatively stronger position financially than its competitors (in relation to debt). Is it conceivable that a second wave of bad debts (not from Anfield) to hit the bank could mean they have to impact on their good customers again? It is certainly possible that they will once again have to shore up their own finances. Any more demands for capital repayment will no doubt have an impact on any transfer budget and future growth plans for the club.

On the plus side this may yet all blow over and in a year's time some will be back wishing that DIC had bought us. Many are suggesting that Abu Dhabi will still ride to Dubai's rescue, see it's not what you know...

Premier League Agents - Are LFC Effective at Negotiating?

Unless you have had your head in a cloud over the last couple of days you won't have missed the story about agent's fees in the Premier League. This remains a subject which will continually be revisited over the coming years and will no doubt come under closer scrutiny with each review. A staggering £70.5m has been spent on agent's fees over the past year, which is more turnover than some of the clubs operating in the Premiership.

Now we all have to 'earn our corn' and I doubt anyone will argue that a fair day's work deserves a fair day's pay but at first sight these figures seem high. Especially when you consider that the fees account for a few hundred transactions. Now I'm not going to argue any further over the rights or wrongs of agents as I'm sure they will be dealt with over time.

What did interest me is whether or not the figures can show us anything else. Now before I get to the crux of this entry let me give you the problems with the data I am about to present:

- The figures I have picked up are from Page 56 of the sport section in the Telegraph. While all of the agents' fees are provided, together with total transfer amounts, they do not include figures for player contract renewals. So in our case this would include hefty contracts (and presumably agent fees) for both Gerrard and Torres.

- The data presented also includes some transactions from previous years, presumably because of accounting complexities.

- The data provided doesn't give you the number of transactions involved.

However, as a (very rough) indicator I wondered whether the figures would show how the 'business' performed when negotiating with agents. As a percentage of the transfer fees we should be able to assess how effective the 'haggling' was.

I first of all assessed against player purchases only. This is because I believe the lion's share of the fees will be generated from player purchases rather than the odd occasion of trying to move a player on. While we appear third in the list of fees in the papers (for total fees paid) the picture does change when assessed like this.

Transfer fee as % against player sales only - other notable clubs in bold

1. Chelsea 48.4%

2. Bolton 32.7%

3. West Ham United 27.7%

4. Fulham 24.5%

5. Portsmouth 20.6%

6. Arsenal 16.8%

7. Liverpool 16.5%

8. Wigan 14.3%

9. Blackburn 11.5%

10. Everton 9.1%

11.Tottenham 8.0%

12. Man City 7.4%

13. Burnley 7.0%

14. Hull 6.8%

15. Wolverhampton 6.2%

16. Sunderland 6.1%

17. Birmingham 4.9%

18. Aston Villa 2.8%

19. Man United 3.8%

20. Stoke 2.2%

Chelsea's fees are the interesting ones to me and the reason why I started looking into this. How can they have nearly half of their incoming transfer fees as additional agents fees?

I then went on to look at the fees as a percentage of the entire transfer activity.

Transfer fee as % against all transfer activity - other notable clubs in bold

1. Chelsea 29.2%

2. Bolton 19.8%

3. Fulham 12.5%

4. West Ham United 12.0%

5. Liverpool 7.4%

6. Burnley 7.0%

7. Arsenal 6.9%

8. Man City 6.6%

9.Tottenham 5.9%

10. Wolverhampton 5.8%

11. Wigan 5.3%

12. Birmingham 4.9%

13. Hull 4.8%

14. Everton 4.4%

15. Portsmouth 3.7%

16. Blackburn 3.7%

17. Sunderland 3.3%

18. Aston Villa 2.8%

19. Stoke 2.0%

20. Man United 1.0%

Again Chelsea top the table and we are spot on the average fees as a percentage at 7.4%.

Now of course it can be argued that if agent's fees are capped the greater the amount of transfer activity the greater the 'dilution effect' of those capped fees. But then when you look at clubs with similar spending to our £40.4m, say MUFC (£40.3m) and AVFC (£45.3m) their agent's fees are considerably lower than ours. Are they better at negotiating these fees, or is it the renewals of Gerrard and Torres, or the previous year's transactions maybe distorting the figures?

Without any more data I'm afraid I can't go any further, on what I am sure would be a good indicator / analysis of the cost management of transfer fees for agents. The data indicates (and nothing more) that in relation to player purchases we operate within the industry average. I suspect given the Gerrard and Torres renewals we actually operate better than the average.

If I get chance I may dig around for more data, if anyone has any please mail me or comment below.

In Rafa I Trust on Derby Day

I really liked Rafa's interview earlier in the week when he talked about the lure of Real Madrid. Real Madrid are quite obviously very close to his heart. According to the interview they were offering him more money personally and more money for player transfers. Given the splurge over the summer I don't think anyone can doubt this.

So why stay? Why not leave our club and run back to his HOMELAND, the CLUB HE SUPPORTED AS A YOUNGSTER, with a BIGGER TRANSFER BUDGET and for MORE MONEY?

Well I think there are two reasons. The first is that the job isn't done yet. For anyone who didn't catch the excellent Gerrard interview in Four Four Two he said "He's (Rafa) a perfectionist: he's obsessed with perfection individually and as a team". In a perfectionist mind I believe leaving now would be hard, if not impossible - a failure. Secondly, and more importantly, he quite obviously has a genuine affection for our club. From day one he has surprised. Whether that's winning the champions league or celebrating in a pub with fans. He very quickly worked his way into the hearts of Liverpool fans, which is where he remains for most.

During the blame game posts (which I started because of our recent run of form) I made my feelings on Rafa very clear and I called for some 'peace time'. Now I realise that not all of my wishes will come true in relation to this but for today I would like to see everyone behind our club and behind Rafa. I realise that not everyone shares my thoughts about Rafa but no one should be in any doubt about his dedication to our club. No one should be in any doubt of his track record and

everyone should review the recent 'blip' against his overall record at Anfield. I'm not going to reel off the statistics here as you've probably seen them a million times already. If not, just go look at his record with our club, then sit down and look at the last ten results. Ask yourself honestly... is this in all likelihood a blip, a bad run of results exacerbated by injuries?

I'll be completing every tweet today with #ynwa and #irwt as a thank you to Rafa. He'll probably never know I was doing it. If we all do it he still may never know we're all doing it. But I don't care if he doesn't see, I don't care if no one sees it trending it's quite simply a thank you. I hope the power of Twitter may do the rest.

If you don't have twitter yet please go and get it, follow me @mcdonaldtaf and re-tweet my tweets and follow any other tweets with #ynwa and #irwt. I would also recommend @paul_tomkins, @lfctv, @robbohuyton and @empireofthekop as must have LFC follows.

Liverpool Football Club - On the brink of collapse somewhere!

This morning in an alternative universe Liverpool Football Club woke up to a brand new world. Over the past 24 hours their owners have found themselves in increasing difficulty as the Dubai Government, who own the club through it investment vehicle DIC, find themselves on the brink of collapse. £44bn has been wiped off the stock of Dubai related companies and the credit ratings of its major companies downgraded.

What does this mean for Liverpool Football Club? Well DIC had followed their usual protocols of applying high leverage against the business assets to support it. The club has benefited from major activity in the transfer market and the building of a new stadium, which is 50% complete. If the Dubai government is unable to reach agreement with its companies' creditors then it could effectively collapse.

This would mean disaster for Liverpool Football Club as it is unlikely that anyone will see the opportunity to make a return on such a highly leveraged business. It is inevitable that work on the new stadium will cease and the possibility of a fire sale of its most prized footballing assets including players Fernando Torres, David Villa, David Silva and Steven Gerrard are more likely than ever. Given the debts were placed directly onto the club and guaranteed by DIC rather than through a special investment vehicle (holding company) it is highly likely that Liverpool will face a points deduction from the FA.

One of the truly great clubs of all time woke up this morning and found itself on the brink of falling down a deep black financial hole.

----------------------------------------------------

Back to reality.

What would have DIC done that would have been any different to H&G? In a world where credit was easy companies grew on the back of leverage against assets. What I believe would have been different would have been the sheer level of debts. Much like CFC face destruction if Abramovich fails, so would we.

IF H&G fail then LFC will be bought and we will not (I believe) face any points deduction. The debt levels are more than acceptable to a potential buyer at the moment and the company is run by an effective management team who are delivering its potential after years of neglect. This turnaround will take time and patience is required. Much like it is with Rafa at the moment.

We can't go out and buy players without taking on extra risk. It is a balancing act and one which Christian Purslow and his team is managing very very well!

Please do not comment on this page unless you have evidence of business reasons why H&G are bad for LFC. I don't want emotive comments, I want cold hard facts. Before you do, go do some research. I have done a lot for you and would refer you back to Blame Game Part One.

This morning I woke up and thought, thank god for that!

A response to Henry Winter for his tripe today!

Ok I need to keep this brief, but let me direct you (in response to your article today) in the right direction for some of the answers you think WE need.

Why is Benítez so cautious with Alberto Aquilani?

- why don't you ask the medical staff who will be providing their expertise and knowledge

How can the Italian acquire the match fitness he needs if he is used only a minute here and there?

- good question, look above. He'll be ready when he's ready. Out of interest what article would this be if he had played, got injured and was out for 6 months "Rafa rushes back Aquilani despite medical advice"? Let me guess "Benitez's stubborn streak continues as he defies medial expertise to play a not fully fit...."

Can Martin Skrtel deal with zonal marking?

- No, he gets played there in our system using zonal marking because he can't deal with it. Last season proved that.... oh hang on.... are you being serious?

Can Liverpool hold on to Javier Mascherano next year?

- Ask the board, the club coming in to buy him, Mascherano or his agent.

Can Benítez bring through more home-grown players, stiffening the team’s resolve?

- Ask him when he's had more time with control over the academy - as you refer to within your article.

Why has Ryan Babel got the hump?

- Ask Ryan Babel, he seems happy enough to whinge and moan elsewhere!

Are the finances so bad that Sotiris Kyrgiakos is the best centre-half Benítez could draft in?

- Ask the board.

Does he really believe “100 per cent’’ that Liverpool can finish in the top four when Manchester City have more money and Tottenham Hotspur more goals?

- No it's just a dream, again are you serious? City for all their money couldn't beat our depleted side and Spurs have just had their goals increased by a pretty freakish result by normal standards.

Is Lucas really good enough?

-*yawn* have you actually watched us play this season? Should have been MOTM against United and has been a silver lining during our injury crisis (yes we've had one of those)

Does he regret selling Stephen Warnock?

- Ask the board if he had to sell to buy.

Did he alienate Xabi Alonso by going for Gareth Barry?

- Xabi Alonso has answered this a million times, why does Rafa need to add anthing?

Would he jump ship to Real Madrid if Manuel Pellegrini gets the Bernabeu bullet?

- He himself has answered this a million times. My god you get paid for this, yes?

Questions, questions. And another, who is Benítez accountable to now?

- The board. I just needed common sense for that one Henry

United lose at home in the CL, Everton increase their run to 1 win in 10 but your focus.... Anfield?

Oh and a question for you that I really do need the answer to. If my aunty had balls would that make her my uncle? If you could do a story on my aunty's balls that would be great. It's been bothering me for ages and let's be honest, it would make for a much better article than the one you wrote!

LFC - Blame Game Decisions - Part Three (Forums, Spirit of Shankly and Fans)

It could be time to sell Torres and Gerrard and rebuild our squad with the proceeds.

Ryan Babel should be given a run of at least 10 games to build his confidence.

We must drop Kuyt because he is ineffective and useless.

Martin Kelly did well for a game, move Johnson to right midfield and play Kelly at right back for the rest of the season.

If Aquilani is sat on the bench then he's obviously fully fit, so play him.

and finally....

Get rid of Benitez and bring back Souness!

Internet Forums

How does it look to you. Is that a blueprint for success? Well take the combined 'expertise' from some forum contributors or 'experts' as some would say and this is what you end up with. I guess we're all entitled to our opinions but some, when stacked up like above, just beggar belief.

This is even before we get onto the vile contribution from other 'experts' who seem to be unable to string together a full sentence without the use of f***, sh** or cu**. These types of 'experts' are most dangerous when forum hunting in a pack I have found.

Now, don't get me wrong everyone is quite rightly entitled to their point of view. I have actually only started interacting in forums over the past couple of months. My expectations of what I might find were possibly just a bit too high though. I expected reasoned debate backed with some sort of evidence of logical thinking, interjected from time to time by the odd idiot. What I have found is a bit different, or perhaps the exact opposite in some cases. A lot of people (not all) seem to have a fixed point of view and you can't shift them no matter what evidence you produce. Others have very little to back up their point of view and seem to be working on a hunch or what they were told.

Knowledge is power but a little knowledge is just downright dangerous. This is where I have the biggest problem with forums. None of us contributors have the whole picture. We don't know who's playing well in training, has a slight knock, has full match fitness etc. But yet we take 50 - 75% of the information available and pass absolute judgements on players, managers and the club as a whole. Then when you reduce the knoweldge gap by providing evidence, well if it was on the phone it would be like this...

'Expert': Rafa doesn't bring through players like Wenger, why can't we get Wenger. Rafa is sh** at bringing through players.

Fact Based Expert: Do you realise that he has only recently had full control over the academy set up and here's the evidence? So really it's a bit unfair to level that accusation at him. We need to judge him over the next few years don't we?

'Expert': ... *click*

Fact Based Expert: hello?

I think you all know my views on Rafa if you read part 2 (CLICK HERE for PART 2) of this series. There are contributing factors with a weight of evidence behind them as to why patience is required. On the other side there is.... urm... well bad results. Short term views aren't helping anyone. We are in this for the long haul. Does anyone believe that without our injuries we would be so far behind? Yet people enter forums with a gut feeling or a reaction to a bad result. They seem to have already forgotten how well we did last season. Yet 6 months later we have the worst manager ever and now all his knowledge, that guided us so near last season, dropped out of his head. Now he's rubbish.

But here's the contradiction for every 100 posts in a forum a small percentage are well presented and researched arguments. They make sense and I nod my head and I think yes I agree with that, even if I didn't before, you have persuaded me. It's usually those posts that are followed by "you p*ick you don't know what you're on about' though. So I shake my head and between the nodding and the shaking I start to feel dizzy and slightly nauseous.

So, on the whole, I don't like forums. They're not places to go to talk things over or foster support at times of trouble like now. They're places to go and put forward a point of view without proper research and to generally have a go. The wheels are falling off, quick replace the driver. But that won't help and here is a full list of scientific research to show why the driver won't make any difference to the nuts holding the wheels on....... hello?

Spirit of Shankly

I really like the concept of a supporters union and I admire some of the work which is being conducted by SOS. At first I was concerned that it was a 'closed shop' and that interaction with them would be restricted. This has not been my experience to date. I have communicated with them on several occasions and they have responded with their point of view and encouraged me to attend a meeting. They have been continually open and courteous with me as I emailed question after question.

I do wonder though whether their initial raison d'etre will hamper them in the future. They will not be shaken in their conviction that the owners of the club are bad for it. I applaud the conviction of their belief but I think they could end up the wrong way of a one way alley. They have gone on the record as stating that they will not change their views and that, to me, was a mistake.

We are fast approaching deadlock. The owners of the club cannot be forcibly removed and they are hard nosed businessmen. Demonstrations or any other actions will not bother them while the club continues to improve commercially, which it is doing. They will only take action when they see it hit their wallets. I am unsure if SOS can generate the following it needs to effect this kind of change.

So the general bad feeling created continues and a section of the fan base continues to be unhappy. The danger persists that the corporate image may be tarnished and this could do immense damage to the club. SOS may then find a larger section of fans protesting about their actions.

I also have a genuine concern that within forums more 'hardcore / direct action' splinter groups are being discussed. They may be separate from SOS but they may damage by association, which would be a shame.

I know SOS has a sizeable following and I am one person. I would just ask them to consider the idea of 'peace time' again. We have enough to worry about on the pitch at the moment and is a year really going to make that much of a difference? Strategically I am sure it will be to their benefit, one way or the other.

The Fans

We are respected the world over and I don't believe many clubs have the special bond created between club and fans. We are known for our ability to stand by our club no matter what and we sing you'll never walk alone to re-emphasise the point at any given time.

It worries me though that the special relationship between club and fans is changing. Maybe its just my reaction to our current predicament. I have only really started interacting with the fans and club during this torrid time. Maybe it's down to the new owners or the 'situation' with the new owners. I really don't know but what I do know is that we don't just support 'the team' we support Liverpool Football Club. That means we support the manager, the staff, the players and even the cones used for training. At this moment in time our club needs our support. Not just the team, every level of the club needs our support.

To me that means:

- one huge voice at every game no matter what

- seeing #ynwa trending on twitter during every game

- everyone behind the manager until we're losing like this without clear reasons

- no demonstrations until, at least, we are over our blip

- support for every player whether they are playing good or bad

You see if we do this, if we just concentrate on supporting our club at this moment in time while the chips are down. No one can say that the famous 12th man didn't do his bit!

The Blame Game

There is no one individual to blame for our problems. We have a culmination of factors and errors. We're getting a bit like a soap opera. but don't look for one hook to hang it all on. We win together, we lose together and we stand together always. The blame game is about recognising that multiple factors are causing failure not one.

Some are blaming Rafa, some the owners, some the players, some the fans, some think it's all down to Dirk Kuyt. Add in injuries and poor form and the answer is in there somewhere... spread against all of them, except Dirk Kuyt! Rafa isn't infallible but he is recognised as one of the top managers in the world and he wants to be at Anfield. The owners have made mistakes but the commercial success off the pitch is improving. Some players had bad form but have now improved. Injuries are easing and hopefully the short term problems will be rectified quickly. Longer term I still believe in exactly how things are going now.

I hope the blame game has come to an end with this post, starting at Goodison!

LFC Points Production Ltd. - Open Letter to Business Today

If Liverpool Football Club was as 'ordinary' business, I wonder whether a letter asking for advice might look like this...

Dear Business Today,

I could really do with some business advice from you and I hope you can help.

Our business uses foot-e-ball machines to manufacture official premier league points. The business had been performing ok for a number of years when a decision was taken to replace the general manager. When the new manager arrived he brought with him a unique patented system of improving our foot-e-ball machines. He owns the patent and is therefore crucial, we believe, to the future success of making good quality premier league points. In fact we were awarded the runner up spot in the Premier League Points Awards 2008/9.

One of the key benefits of the new manager's systems is that he was able to considerably improve the efficiency and general performance of our existing machines. We were then able to make more premier league points than we had ever done in the past. In addition to this, through his knowledge and contacts, he purchased new foot-e-ball machines and then added his patented systems for improvement. Now I have to confess that some foot-e-ball machines were not compatible with his systems but on the whole the effects have been astonishing.

They were so astonishing that all of a sudden competitors were approaching us to buy some of our foot-e-ball machines. Some of the offers couldn't be turned down so all of a sudden we were making major profits out of our machines as well as improving our points production. This has allowed for our net costs to be substantially reduced across the business. For example the Alonso-T5536 machine was one of the first machines he bought and modified, we have recently sold it for a £20m profit because of the value added by the new manager's processes. Other example include the Crouch-Tallman - £4m profit, Bellamy-Crazyman2000 - £1.5m profit and the Sissoko-Destroyer2Z - £2.5m profit.

While the benefits from some of our slower production machines have been substantial. Our high efficiency machines, the Pepe-Stops897 and Torres-Destroyer, are now indispensable to our business but are each probably worth at least 3 times more than what we bought them for (at least £50m profit). Even one of the machines we have had for years (our most efficient points producer before the arrival of the new manager, the Gerrard-Dynamic-X4) has, we believe, increased efficiency and value since the adoption of the manager's new systems.

You are probably wondering what the problem is. Well recently there have been some maintenance issues out of the manager's control. We lent some machines out and they came back damaged and some other machines have had other problems. Of course everyone is looking at our general manager rather than the managers of the companies we lent the machines to or the maintenance manager. I am coming under increasing pressure from a small section of our customer base to replace him. However, I am confident that the manager will continue to add value to our business and win lots of new awards longer term.

How can I possibly get rid of a manager who is improving our points production (when the machines don't have maintenance issues) and continually increasing the asset value of the business?

What should I do?

Your sincerely,

Chris Parslow

LFC - Title Contenders or 4th Place Scrappers?

I missed the start of the game yesterday. I was soon shaking my head so violently at the news of two more injuries it nearly fell off when I caught up though! Despite the obvious knock on effect to the game plan and with all things considered the result could have been a lot worse by the time 90 minutes had elapsed.

I, like many a red, came into this season with raised expectations. After coming so close last season, with the addition of Glen Johnson in particular and despite the loss of Alonso, I expected us to be contenders until the death at least. 13 Games in and a revision of expectations given our start, as painful as it may be, is called for.

However, before I change our moniker from 'title contender' to 'CL qualifier' I wanted to assess some stats. Now don't get me wrong I am not about to state that we'll still win it and tell you to have hope. There are some interesting things to take into consideration though before I 'change the name title on the door'.

Last Season

This time last season we were sat 8 points ahead of the eventual Premiership champions, albeit with a game in hand. We had scored 21 goals and conceded a miserly 8, averaging less than one a game. This season we sit 8 points behind the Premiership champions. We are obviously doing something right as our goals to date this season are up to 29, ahead of United's 26.

But as with everything there is a fly in the ointment, well two to be precise. Chelsea are a further 5 points ahead of United and look (to me at least) to be the team to beat this season based on their current form. We have also conceded a lot more goals this season, perhaps because of an increased priority on attacking but it's more likely down to injuries, mistakes and poor form to date.

On a good run? Let's keep it up!

Some things are just out of your control as a Manager. Our recent run of injuries are testament to this. The African Cup of Nations could be Chelsea's downfall in the new year though. Yes, they have a strong squad and the funding to buy new players in January (although Ancelotti has suggested this won't happen) but they will lose Essien, Drogba, Kalou and Obi Mikel. With the consequences of the tournament usually taking their toll well into February the teams they face from January to mid February (Hull, Sunderland, Birmingham, Burnley, Arsenal and Everton) will be a little more optimistic than normal; and will hopefully 'up their game'. I wish the teams they face were a bit stronger but a bit more belief than normal may bring some surprising results. If not... well I don't see anyone getting past them!

A Merry Xmas?

In the run up to and including Christmas Chelsea have tough games (top 6 sides) against Arsenal (A), Man City (A) and Everton (H) before then running into Portsmouth (H), West Ham (A), Birmingham (A) and Fulham (H). The first three of these game will be critical to their ongoing success.

Alex Ferguson is probably rubbing his hands as during the same time frame United will face Portsmouth (A), West Ham (A), Villa (H), Wolves (H), Fulham (A), Hull (A) and Wigan (H). Arsenal will have a tougher time against Chelsea (H), Stoke (H), Liverpool (A), Burnley (A), Hull (H), Villa (H) and Portsmouth (A).

Us? Well a mixed bag starting with the derby against Everton (A), then onto Blackburn (A), Arsenal (H), Wigan (H), Portsmouth (A), Wolves (H) and Villa (A).

Another Springboard?

The win over United should have proven to be a springboard to winning games and building confidence. With key players coming back from injury I don't think there could be a better time to face Everton (even at Goodison). We need a game with passion and a game to build confidence and start getting this season back on track. From there we need to continue building confidence. Benitez said that the game against City was important, I believe Everton could and should prove to be our turning point.

I'm not going to be as bold to even hint that we'll be Premiership champions come May. However, I am going to say this...

We haven't through the loss of one player and within a few months gone from being Premiership contenders to having to scrap for fourth place. We have had an awful run of injuries and poor form from key players. I've seen enough to hope that we can pull ourselves into contention. I've seen enough results to know that the league is stronger this season and results not necessarily as assured as they once were. We need that springboard and then to build upon it... and we need it now! We can only focus on ourselves and let the other teams worry about their results and we need a winning run.

I'm going to leave our current 'title' on the door for now and review it again on the first of January. Hopefully at that point I'll be scheduling in another review for mid February.