There is no getting away from this being our worst period at Anfield in a long, long time. With this you expect that questions may be asked but it is the sheer lack of balance which infuriates me. Go and review any of the recent stories and there is not even a mention of the worst injury crisis at Anfield in a long, long time. Funny how those two things have both happened at the same time isn't it?
So I headed off into my excel spreadsheets and the Liverpool website to attempt to make a comparison between this season and last. At this point last season we had amassed 37 points. Which would, this season, see us joint top with Chelsea. Then you look at this season's 24 points leaving us sitting a lowly 7th and creating questions about whether we will even qualify for fourth.
So I decided to review our injuries by implementing a points system. I was going to use Paul Tomkins' relative transfer system but that would then exclude the home grown talent. So I've come up with a simple points system which provides points based on a player's quality as follows:
5 Points - Star Players / Big Money Signings / Courted by Other Top Teams
Alonso, Aquilani, Gerrard, Johnson, Keane, Mascherano, Reina, Torres
3 Points - 1st XI Choice / Solid Player
Agger, Arbeloa, Aurelio, Benayoun, Carragher, Hyypia, Kuyt, Lucas, Pennant, Riera
2 Points - 'Bargain Bin' Signing / Failed to Impress / 2nd XI Choice
Babel, Degen, Dossena, Kyrgiakos, Voronin
1 Point - Youngster
Ayala, Insua, Plessis, Ngog, Spearing
If you're wondering why I have gone from 5 points down to 3, 2 and 1. This is not to skew the figures but to simply recognise the world class players who can make a real difference in any team.
I then sat down and worked out what I consider the top XI currently at Rafa's disposal (when all fit) and calculated their points total:
Reina (5), Aurelio (3), Carragher(3), Agger (3), Johnson (5), Kuyt (3), Mascherano (5), Aquilani (5), Riera (3), Gerrard (5) and Torres (5) - Total of 45 points.
From there I take it you can guess the rest. I trawled back through the starting XI's for the first 16 games of the 2008/9 and 2009/10 seasons and calculated as a % of the total put out for each match day (I'll refer to the % as 'team quality' herein). Hoping they would show the impact of this season's injuries and whether there is any correlation to our points total.
In 2008/9 up to this point of the season our 37 points had been provided from a team with an average team quality of 91.1%. The distribution of the team quality (in 5% increments) being:
95-100%: 3
90-95%: 8
85-90%: 2
80-85%: 3
<80%: 0
So for two thirds of the games the team was running at over 90% team quality and overall never fell below 80%.
Looking then at 2009/10 and our 24 points the team quality provides a very different picture with an average of 85% but then a distribution which tells how traumatic this season's team quality has been affected:
95-100%: 0
90-95%: 4
85-90%: 7
80-85%: 1
75-80%: 3
70-75%: 1
The difference this season is clear. Rafa has not been able to field a 95%+ team once and only 1 in four games have been played with over 90%, compared to 2 out of three last season.The majority of this season so far has been played with a quality of less than 90% and four games at less than 80%.
In the previous season Rafa's team quality fell below 90% for 5 games compared to 12 out of 16 games this season. 3/4 of the games at less than the average from last season.
A couple of other interesting facts:
- The only games we have lost over both seasons when we've had a team quality of over 90% have been to 'top 6 sides' (Tottenham, Villa, Chelsea and Arsenal).
- Across both seasons we never once won one of our four games with a team quality of less than 80%. Despite three of these games being against 'lesser' opposition (Sunderland, Fulham and Birmingham).
Injuries aren't the only problem at Anfield and we're all aware of that. One of the reasons why our percentages have dropped so badly this season is because our squad is so painfully thin. There have also been form problems with some players, especially early on. Form problems with absolute key players I might add (Carragher, Gerrard and Mascherano).
The injuries though are the main cause of our current dilemma, of that I'm sure. This isn't a case of rolling out excuses because of blind faith. It is simply asking people to sit up and acknowledge the injury problems we have had. If you want to criticise that's fine but provide a balanced argument first. On hang on..... that won't work for your agenda or sell your grubby wares, will it?
Logging you in...
Jaimie Kanwar · 805 weeks ago
I'm not sure about the points system employed but I can see your overall point.
Injuries should definitely be taken into consideration when assessing the train wreck of a season so far, but I also think that Benitez has been the author his own - and Liverpool's - destruction when it comes to injuries. Examples:
1. Fabio Aurelio and Daniel Agger: Both injury prone before coming to Liverpool. Aurelio, for example, has averaged less than 20 games a season for his entire career (even less for Liverpool). Despite the injury histories, Benitez still bought them both; and ever since - including this season - they have been continually injured.
He didn't *need* to sign players with a history of injuries, did he? If he'd signed players with a history of fitness, perhaps our injury problems wouldn't have been so acute.
Same principle applies to Philipp Degen - as a result of injuries, he played only 10 games for Borussi Dortmund in the season prior to joining Liverpool. What happened? Benitez aquired him (2m signing-on fee), and he's been injured for 95% of the time ever since.
2. Aquilani. Benitez bought him while he was injured. He didn't start a game for 4 months after joining, in which time Liverpool crashed out of the CL, Carling Cup and the premiership race.
If he'd bought a FIT player, i.e. someone who could play from day 1 of the season, our injury crisis would not have been so bad. Instead, we missed the benefit of having a FIT top class first team player, and also missed someone who could step up and cover other injured players.
3. Torres and Gerrard. Benitez did not give them enough time to recover properly. This season, both were injured and rushed back, which led to further time out. The effects of this would not have been so acute if Benitez hadn't alienated Alonso/Aquilani was fit, and/or we had a quality back-up striker.
So - if Benitez hadn't bought injured/injury prone payers, we could conceivably have had the following players fit during our recent injury crisis:
Agger
Aurelio
Aquilani (or another top class Midfielder)
Degen
These 4 players, when fit, would have made a difference, would they not? Yes, some of the injuries were bad luck, but Benitez must take his share of the blame too. The key issue here is Benitez has repeatedly chosen to buy injured players or players with a history of injuries. His gambles have backfired, and Liverpool have suffered this season as a result.
In my view, the club should have a blanket policy of not signing injured players or those with a significant history on being injured.
I had to laugh at recent reports linking us with Louis Saha, a player who due to injuries has averaged about 10-15 games a season over the last 3-4 years (and not much more over his entire career). If there is any truth to that rumour and Benitez buys him, it will be another ridiculous transfer gamble.
mcdonaldtaf 19p · 805 weeks ago
First of all it makes a nice change you commenting on my site :-).
I think you're being a bit unfair in your assessment. Look at the players you have mentioned. Aurelio and Degen were both free transfers, possibly because of the injury problems? For free Aurelio would be in my starting XI and has been a good 'buy', also his latest injury was a freakish accident at home. Degen has had moments but not impressed me so far.
Agger's chronic back problem only seems to have come to the fore after coming to Liverpool. If he is over the worst now, for £5m, he is an exceptional buy and again in my starting XI.
You have to look at these players as 'cheap buys' and the unknown question is were they cheap buys by choice or circumstance? I.e. had Rafa had and extra £50m would they even be at the club? Especially given his excellent transfer record above £15m. This then also throws up the squad question, which to my mind is not strong enough. One of the things I didn't include in my assessment was our subs bench. From recollection there was a lot more quality on the bench last season as well ( a sure sign of a stretched squad?)
I accept the Aquilani argument and have made the point myself in the past. It could be one of those hindsight things though. We expected, coming into the season, to have the luxury of a fit squad. Losing Gerrard and Torres, while on international duty, as well as other players could not be foreseen. With the benefit of hindsight the gamble has backfired, but could yet (longer term) pay off.
The proof, however, will be in the eating, as they say. If we can keep a fit first XI now for say 12 games and pick up 27 - 30 points it will add even more weight to my argument. Our team is good enough, our squad is not and therefore we, as a club, are susceptible to injuries. As I have commented before though I believe Rafa is on the right track longer term with his plan. Going the Houllier / Evans way of a squad of more averaged players didn't work, despite us being less prone to major effects from an injury crisis.
Saha is quality but, as you say, injury prone. Unless he came really cheaply (which I can't see Everton doing) I don't think it will happen. I must confess that as a stop gap for the rest of this season I like the idea of Van Nistleroy.
ACE · 805 weeks ago
mcdonaldtaf 19p · 805 weeks ago
Our top XI (IMO) with their points in brackets - Reina (5), Aurelio (3), Carragher(3), Agger (3), Johnson (5), Kuyt (3), Mascherano (5), Aquilani (5), Riera (3), Gerrard (5) and Torres (5) - Total of 45 points or 100% team quality - the best available.
Then look at the team which played against Fulham - Reina (5), Carragher (3), Degen (2), Insua (1), Kyrgiakos (2), Kuyt (3), Benayoun (3), Leiva (3), Mascherano (5), Voronin (2), Torres (5) - Total of 34 points or 75% of our total team quality.
The quality was compromised due to injuries against Fulham. As I noted above out of the 32 games I looked at we have never won when our team quality is less than 80%.
Injuries = reduced team quality = draws or losses
Spark · 805 weeks ago
This is my first post here since i saw your profile as a follower in one of my friend blog.
And i am really impress with your post and it's content, and i also have some opinion in my mind.
First of all i'm sorry if you do not agree with my opinion, but let me share with you.
I am truly a die hard Liverpool fan and all my life i've only support Liverpool as my EPL team, but i am really disappointed with their performance and 'bad luck' this season. I am currently at Rotherham for study, and first thing i'd do when i first came here is visit Anfield.
I think this is because too mane average player in the squad, and the same formation used by Benitez in every match.
Some player like Ngog and Insua show an improvement this season and this is good news, but so far i am not impress with Kuyt and Lucas.
Kuyt for example is really typical..yes he is really hard working player but he's lack in quality..he seems like always lack of idea when controlling the ball, most of his pass is back pass..his crossing sometimes works, but most of the time going nowhere. He's not a prolific goal scorer, more worse he is not a good winger.
We need somebody who is fast, dynamic and creative on our flank, at least as same quality as Riera on left..yes it's true Kuyt score decisive goal, but as a Liverpool fan, sincerely i would say he's not up to Liverpool quality.
Lucas, i wouldn't say much about him, they say he's improving but sorry to say, he's nowhere near good midfielder.
We depends too much on Torres and Gerrard, even without them Benitez still use 4-5-1 formation which is not suited when Torres and Gerrard is not in the team.