I, like many a red, came into this season with raised expectations. After coming so close last season, with the addition of Glen Johnson in particular and despite the loss of Alonso, I expected us to be contenders until the death at least. 13 Games in and a revision of expectations given our start, as painful as it may be, is called for.
However, before I change our moniker from 'title contender' to 'CL qualifier' I wanted to assess some stats. Now don't get me wrong I am not about to state that we'll still win it and tell you to have hope. There are some interesting things to take into consideration though before I 'change the name title on the door'.
Last Season
This time last season we were sat 8 points ahead of the eventual Premiership champions, albeit with a game in hand. We had scored 21 goals and conceded a miserly 8, averaging less than one a game. This season we sit 8 points behind the Premiership champions. We are obviously doing something right as our goals to date this season are up to 29, ahead of United's 26.
But as with everything there is a fly in the ointment, well two to be precise. Chelsea are a further 5 points ahead of United and look (to me at least) to be the team to beat this season based on their current form. We have also conceded a lot more goals this season, perhaps because of an increased priority on attacking but it's more likely down to injuries, mistakes and poor form to date.
On a good run? Let's keep it up!
Some things are just out of your control as a Manager. Our recent run of injuries are testament to this. The African Cup of Nations could be Chelsea's downfall in the new year though. Yes, they have a strong squad and the funding to buy new players in January (although Ancelotti has suggested this won't happen) but they will lose Essien, Drogba, Kalou and Obi Mikel. With the consequences of the tournament usually taking their toll well into February the teams they face from January to mid February (Hull, Sunderland, Birmingham, Burnley, Arsenal and Everton) will be a little more optimistic than normal; and will hopefully 'up their game'. I wish the teams they face were a bit stronger but a bit more belief than normal may bring some surprising results. If not... well I don't see anyone getting past them!
A Merry Xmas?
In the run up to and including Christmas Chelsea have tough games (top 6 sides) against Arsenal (A), Man City (A) and Everton (H) before then running into Portsmouth (H), West Ham (A), Birmingham (A) and Fulham (H). The first three of these game will be critical to their ongoing success.
Alex Ferguson is probably rubbing his hands as during the same time frame United will face Portsmouth (A), West Ham (A), Villa (H), Wolves (H), Fulham (A), Hull (A) and Wigan (H). Arsenal will have a tougher time against Chelsea (H), Stoke (H), Liverpool (A), Burnley (A), Hull (H), Villa (H) and Portsmouth (A).
Us? Well a mixed bag starting with the derby against Everton (A), then onto Blackburn (A), Arsenal (H), Wigan (H), Portsmouth (A), Wolves (H) and Villa (A).
Another Springboard?
The win over United should have proven to be a springboard to winning games and building confidence. With key players coming back from injury I don't think there could be a better time to face Everton (even at Goodison). We need a game with passion and a game to build confidence and start getting this season back on track. From there we need to continue building confidence. Benitez said that the game against City was important, I believe Everton could and should prove to be our turning point.
I'm not going to be as bold to even hint that we'll be Premiership champions come May. However, I am going to say this...
We haven't through the loss of one player and within a few months gone from being Premiership contenders to having to scrap for fourth place. We have had an awful run of injuries and poor form from key players. I've seen enough to hope that we can pull ourselves into contention. I've seen enough results to know that the league is stronger this season and results not necessarily as assured as they once were. We need that springboard and then to build upon it... and we need it now! We can only focus on ourselves and let the other teams worry about their results and we need a winning run.
I'm going to leave our current 'title' on the door for now and review it again on the first of January. Hopefully at that point I'll be scheduling in another review for mid February.
