Rantings etc.

Government set to balance the books while hurting landlords?

2010-05-19T12:01:00.000+01:00

As our new fresh faced, or should that be 'fresh two faced', Government sets about reducing the deficit I can't help but wonder why middle England must (yet again) absorb the brunt of tax increases. That is of course if their main rise is to come from a hike in CGT as reported. This 'not so stealth' tax would appear to be aimed specifically at the buy-to-let market.

As someone who recently entered this market I must admit, when I think about why I decided to buy let properties, at being a bit perturbed. After scare stories galore about the state of pensions in the UK and their overwhelming requirement for stable stock markets (no I've never seen one either) I felt I should invest in property, build up a small portfolio and see that as my pension fund. I wonder how many people think like me and now may have to hand over a big chunk in tax because middle England,as usual, is the easiest target.

There is a clear distinction to be drawn between hard working and entrepreneurial individuals and those who have two homes as a luxury. Yet that distinction has not been taken into account from what we read. It really is smoke and mirrors from our new coalition Government. When I said 'not so stealth' earlier what I should have referred to was a 'misdirection tax'... 'quick look over there at those wealthy individuals with their second homes, we're going to tax them, hoorah for your new look Conservative-ish Government. What? Urm yes.... those hard working middle class individuals saving for their futures and trying to get ahead in life, or those who need a second home for work, will get caught up in the net. Never mind!'

Maybe I'm getting ahead of myself but I guess an awful lot of people in the lettings industry will approach the emergency budget with increasing trepidation. Yes we may have to cut the deficit, and we should live within our means as a country but that burden should be applied in proportional amounts and not directed at the Landlords who have made the economy tick for years, built up a valuable UK industry and substantially improved the living conditions for many tenants - all against the backdrop of a housing shortage. When the country needed a solution to its housing crisis buy-to-let landlords were the white knights on mighty steeds; now the Government would have us believe they are fat cats on piggy banks who must pay more.

Moving LFC Blogs

2010-01-06T13:17:00.001Z

Hi All,

Just to let you all know all my new LFC blog posts are now to be found at...

http://invinciblebastion.wordpress.com

which is an LFC specific blog!

Is football about to shoot itself in the foot?

2009-12-30T13:28:00.001Z

As suggested by Gareth Roberts (@robbohuyton for you twitterers) in his Well Red blog, hopefully the ‘green shoots of recovery’ are underway. We may well see these blossom into full recovery heading into the early part of 2010. Although a run of difficult fixtures against the likes of Spurs, Everton and Arsenal risk the opportunity for early 2010 prosperity. But we are starting to show that while, you may not fear us like you did last season, we are a team you really don’t want to play against. There are flashes of fluidity rather than lengthy periods but hopefully we are ‘on our way’ to building that much needed confidence.

While some may not agree that the impact of the credit crunch has impinged on our financial prosperity. The similarities between our club and the financial meltdown of the banking system are interesting - even down to the timing of the green shoots of recovery. The major difference being that the taxpayers haven’t jumped to our rescue to provide some much needed transfer funds.

This season has started to show the changing dynamics of the premiership. While talking about ‘green shoots’ I have been wondering of late whether we are at the root of some major changes within the Premiership. Tottenham, Villa and most notably (and dangerously) City have all made a bid to break up the top four dominance within the Premiership. Man City with their millions in transfer funds and ability to pay astronomical wages pose the greatest threat, although Spurs have also made significant investment in their team.

From a league perspective this has shaken things up considerably. While leading to a greater mixture of results the pressure has increased at least ten fold on the ‘top 7 teams’. Interestingly I also believe that we are seeing a knock on affect lower down the league as teams have ‘stepped up’. Fulham for example have consistently troubled the top 4 while others like Wigan and even Burnley have intermittently risen to the occasion.

I guess greater unpredictability leads to more variation and a more exciting season overall. It also shows where the strengths and weaknesses of a club are. Paul Tomkins makes an excellent case for showing the links between finance and success. I believe that success is delivered through four key areas:

Financial

The financial ability of the club can have a significant affect on the club, particularly if the other three factors are right as well. The ability to pay large transfer fees and support players’ costs undoubtedly means that clubs can buy more of the ’special players’ usually required.

Manager

This is where Liverpool under Rafa Benitez have balanced, to some degree, the financial aspects. Not only has he tactically outmanoeuvred some of the best managers in the world. He has also improved the quality of our squad considerably by increasing the playing abilities and thus value of players. With a net spend per year of £16-20m he has wheeled and dealed his way to a team, if not squad, capable of beating any other team (on their day).

Playing Squad Composition

This, I believe, is quite often overlooked by many. We hadn’t spent hundreds of millions to take us to second place last season. But the composition of the team was right. While we hadn’t spent millions the partnership of Gerrard and Torres was coveted by managers the world over who would have quite happily spent the £100m required to ascertain their services, had either shown any inclination to leave the club. Under Benitez both players have prospered under his tutelage. This goes to show that the right players in the right position, especially under the right manager, can take you towards the pinnacle; sometimes negating the need for the financial requirements.

Luck

The unknowns. The refereeing decisions which are supposed to balance themselves out, the beach balls and any injuries can all have a telling affect on a season. Imagine a season without losing any of our star players (Torres, Gerrard, Reina, Mascherano, Johnson or Aquilani) and you could feasibly see us push for the top spot again.

It’s a balancing act for us. To really push for the top we need Rafa to make up for the shortfall in our financial clout. He has to get the squad composition right and keep improving the quality of our existing players. Something he has done exceptionally well - the reason why the maximum amount of patience must be extended. However, the squad composition does not look right to me this season with a lack of striking options (which I don’t say to negate the input from N’gog). We have also been heavily weighed down with bad luck. Beach balls and injuries sustained while on international duty or even at home playing a key part in our season to date. It is unknown whether the squad composition is wrong because of Rafa or the financial abilities of the club.

To me this quite clearly shows the importance of Rafa. Who balances out our (lack of) financial abilities through his development of players, acquisitions (which on the whole have been good) and tactics.

The big danger of a top 7 is that their business models, following heavy investment, will all undoubtedly require champions league football. You don’t have to be a mathematician to know that 7 doesn’t go into 4! This heaps the pressure on the teams within the top 7. Patience no longer being a luxury that chief execs. can afford, as highlighted by the recent Hughes incident.

It is in the nature of humanity that we feel the need to strive forwards purposefully. To improve and to better ourselves. There is a significant amount of business sense in setting your stall out for Europa football and remaining within the premiership. However expectations rise and that desire to improve comes to the fore.

This all leads to one question. Is football about to shoot itself in the foot? Is this desire to improve, requiring a break up of the top 4, going to ultimately lead to more Leeds scenarios? There is a lot to be said for stability. Especially when you consider how clubs either have to become reliant on an individual (a la Abramovich) or throw yourselves into debt to compete at the top. Neither of these options are appealing to fans if the truth be told and yet neither is stable mediocrity. Makes you wonder how any of the owners of the top clubs can win, unless of course they are the team lucky to be at the top of the table come May. If they’re not at the pinnacle then the investment in the team wasn’t high enough or the stadium isn’t big enough or they did or didn’t sack the manager when they should or shouldn’t have.

Interesting times ahead!

We are, after all, in this together!

2009-12-24T18:38:00.001Z

As we all know, times at Anfield are challenging and difficult at this moment. It is a time for strength of support to well up around the club. It is in these times of adversity that the 'kop faithful' has delivered time and time again.

People have made mistakes and no one single person should be targeted as we are, after all, in this together.

I am not in the 'in rafa we trust brigade', or, the 'rafa can do no wrong club' as some would say. But I do trust and respect the man and I continue to believe that, while he at times made some questionable decisions in my opinion, he is the man who will deliver in the long term (in what are difficult circumstances). He has earned my loyalty and patience in showing his when he turned his back on Madrid and by sticking by the club despite our 'other problems'. I , for one, will not be calling for time on the Rafa era after four months of tumultuous happenings especially after years of gradual improvement.

I won't be quoting our anthem, but I will instead take the words of Theodore Roosevelt.

"It is not the critic who counts, nor the man who points out how the strong man stumbled, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again; who knows great enthusiasms, great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat."

I hope for improved fortunes in 2010 and that the 'kop faithful' will once again come together in one voice, one roar behind our great football club.

Merry Christmas to everyone at the club, my tweeting friends and all Liverpool fans all over the world.

You'll Never Walk Alone

A Xmas Message (I'm about to get slated for!)

2009-12-21T14:07:00.002Z

I got quite a few re-tweets which led to yesterday's post being one of my most viewed. Watch this one dive bomb, oh and watch the idiot counter at the footer go up.
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I've just been out and bought the girlfriend's Xmas present and lovingly wrapped it while thinking about this seasonal time of the year. All the while there is an annoying grinding going on in the back of my mind which won't let me forget. Before you know it I'm thinking about our football club again!

It's especially fitting that this time of the year can be about bringing families back together. Although I don't see the fans, the manager, the back room staff, the players, the owners and the union getting round the table any time soon! There are such divisions within the club at the moment it is hard to see how any kind of harmony will exist in the next decade, never mind this season.

The really annoying part is that any chance of even taking small steps towards some sort of unity seems a million miles away. Over the past few months I have seen people so resolute in their beliefs that they are now only dealing in absolutes.

A few months back I saw an interview with the union when they were asked whether any sort of movement by the owners could bring about peace. 'No' was the answer. The owners had to go and by hook or by crook - go they would. The group had spoken and now the path was set. I commented at the time that I saw this as a mistake.

Fast forward to yesterday when the pressure continues to mount on our manager. I was told on a post that if, come the end of the season, we have won the Europa league and finished third in the league that Benitez still needs to go.

To put these two things into context what we're saying is if (and I accept it is a huge if) the debts of the club are say halved, the equity of the owners is diluted, transfer funds are made available to the manager, work on the new stadium starts, we win the Europa league and finish third there will still be a subset of fans for who this is not enough. There will still be demonstrations, there will still be vile contributions on forums about our manager, there will still be discontent and anger? How do we ever move forward?

It would appear that to some we live in a world where mistakes are not to be tolerated and fogiveness never extended. I'm not quite sure where society is heading. Everything has to be just right and if you get it wrong, don't bother apologising, get out of the door. If you don't go we'll gang up and we'll make you bloody go!

For anyone who is involved in the instigation of this disharmony, whether that's against the owners or the manager, and you think you're not (even a small) part of the problem. You are in my opinion mistaken. A few months back I called for peace time. A period of reflection for 12 months where we all get behind our club, every last single bit of our club no matter what. It fell on deaf ears despite the quite clear logic behind it.

As fans all we should be doing is supporting, letting the team feel that well of pressure and belief around Anfield. Agendas seem to have got in the way and yes I understand that everyone (well most) have the best of intentions, but it's not working and it is impacting on the club as a whole. After ignoring the idea of 'peace time' we can't say that as fans we did all we could do to get us through this torrid time. I don't know how much of an impact the disharmony amongst fans has had, but it is not negligible in my opinion. There has to be a better way people and I would ask every head of an organisation, website or forum and any 'person of influence' to really reflect over the festive period what is best for our club in the new year!

Let the comment battering begin and oh the idiot tick box is the one on the right.

Wholesale Changes Needed at LFC

2009-12-20T10:58:00.002Z

You know the core of all organisations, once a number of employees are involved, are the same. Whether you're in the business of buying and selling goods or engineering rocket parts the key challenges all share the same intrinsic qualities.

I've been managing businesses now for over 10 years and I've had good times and bloody hard times. Ironically my hardest times were when I was working for a manufacturing firm in Liverpool. The UK wide group manufactured plastic injection mouldings and our owners saw the opportunity to acquire a firm in Kirkby. A firm which was failing but with good contracts and the potential to make a significant return on investment. Especially as the company was being supported through some pretty substantial grant funding.

So the owners bought the firm and struggled to bring around a turnaround from day one. Now my MD and I (together with another colleague) had already turned round the fortunes of one of our failing sites in North Wales. So we were asked to head into the Kirkby site and 'work our magic'. The sales side of things had been sorted and the site was, despite its failings, picking up new contracts. All we had to do was get everything running right. Easy huh?

It seemed easy when I set out but I simply wasn't ready for the absolute culture shock I was faced with. We started trying to incrementally bring about change so as to not 'lose the workforce' or confuse systems and controls. In these situations you look for your reliable team members and you try to build systems and controls around them, even if they're not the best qualified or, in some cases, even the best performers. So we kept the overall modus operandi in place (which worked, but badly) while tweaking at the edges to gradually improve. We had been given a year after all.

To cut a long story short within a year my boss and I recommended to the board that they shut the site down. Quite simply with employment law as it was and the challenges facing the area the site was never, in our opinion, going to make a return. The board replaced us with another team, after some ill founded advice, and within another year that site in Kirkby brought down the whole group of 7 sites across the UK as the losses mounted.

The truth of the matter was we were unable to bring about the changes the site needed quickly enough. In hindsight the incremental changes were never going to work. We literally needed to bring about quick major changes from day one. I was younger then and I guess faced with the same situation now I may be better equipped to recognise that fact and shake things up from day one for better results.

I see similarities between that site in Kirkby and our club at the moment. There is no denying that the pressure is mounting at Liverpool Football Club. Yesterday should have been three points. It has been interesting to follow twitter, without contributing too much, and seeing the change in opinions. Even from previously die hard Rafa loyalists. The blame game rumbles on though while pin the tail on the scapegoat continues. Some push the tail on the owners or the players but more and more are pushing it onto Rafa.

The problem that the remaining Rafa loyalists have is that the reasons (and they are reasons and not excuses) are drying up. We don't have injury problems at the moment, or we didn't until Mascherano lunged in. Yes we do need another striker, but in fairness that negates the applause N'gog deserves - would Owen have done any better? The return rate of goals would indicate not. Yesterday (and yes I'll say it) even with 10 men we should have picked up three points. The quality of our players far surpassing that of Portsmouth.

I fully understand and recognise the logic of setting up with two defensive midfielders while confidence is low. Especially while our back four continues to be suspect. There is something quite obviously not working right amongst the back four at the moment. Maybe Rafa gets to see that in training as well. Hence his team selections of late. Two defensive midfielders set up in front of the back four, harrying the opposition, could well be the best way of not conceding. On the other side though it doesn't present the best opportunity to score either.

Maybe Rafa is working on the basis that the magic of Gerrard and Torres, coupled with the hard work of Kuyt will be enough to nick a goal or two. If we can get three wins in this fashion, well the confidence will be back (or getting there) and you can start being braver with team selection.

It is suggested that there are five key leadership attributes for leaders within organisations. Passion (what they believe in with enthusiasm and commitment), concentration (persistence and unwillingness to quit) and values (enduring standards of behaviour) I would never question with Rafa. But then you come onto confidence which is defined as "the unshakable belief in yourself to make happen what you want to happen". No one can doubt Rafa's confidence in his own abilities, he has a track record and success rate that allows him this confidence.

But therein lies the danger. Sometimes you have to step back and re-assess the situation. Sometimes you have to question yourself and your tactics and call upon the fifth leadership attribute. Courage - to do what is right and to overcome obstacles. So I return to the start of my story. Now is not the time, in my opinion, to be fiddling round the edges with a system which is looking suspect and unfortunately predictable. We need to play to our strengths. It is not about the optimum tactics or formation anymore, it's about the best starting XI we have with confidence and, in my opinion, attacking prowess. At this point it's about doing the unexpected and surprising your opponent.

Sitting back isn't working, bolstering our defences isn't working. I see and understand the logic but it's simply not working. Even against Wigan I don't believe it truly worked. Yes we got the result but if we're honest it could have quite easily been another slip, couldn't it?

When it comes to the football side of things, I play, but I'm happy to admit that tactically I'm naive when compared against other fans like Paul Tomkins or even my brother. When it comes to seeing a problem with an organisation though and recognising that tinkering isn't going to cut it anymore? No matter the organisation I can see it.

It sounds counter intuitive with a suspect back four but we need to attack more. Clichéd as it sounds attack may well be our best form of defence. Put teams on the back foot and stop trying to soak up pressure all the time as it's not working!

From my naive footballing brain, and the Mascherano injury maybe gives us the opportunity I would try the following (with an attacking mentality) XI: Reina, Johnson, Carragher, Agger, Aurelio, Gerrard (on the right), Lucas (in front of back four), Aquilani, Riera/Benayoun, N'gog (behind Torres), Torres. I know it will start up all the Gerrard on the right talk, but he is effective there. N'gog for someone so young understands the game and I was impressed with the way he was linking with Kuyt the other night. Can he create a formidable partnership and understanding with Torres? We'll never know unless we try.

I realise I'm doing what I always complain about. Suggesting things, as a fan, without seeing the players in training or knowing their state of mind etc. Maybe Rafa has already tried this in training and it was useless but the key message is the same. Rafa needs to stop tinkering and have the courage to make wholesale changes to the teams mentality, tactics and formations. He then needs to 'gee them up' and send them out there with a fresh approach, it's surprising in organisations how 'teams' can react to a fresh approach.

I am still 100% behind Rafa at this moment in time. A little more patience is required and I'm still at a loss as to who will come in. Rafa is a world class manager and still deserves us behind him. I just hope he either recognises the need for courage and change or brings about the results some other way. Results are the only thing which are now going to fix this situation for the team, the club and his own future.

Hello.... we've had injury problems!

2009-12-15T22:42:00.007Z

So the media battering of our manager continues. It would appear that unless Rafa Benitez wins every game for the rest of the season (and every competition we remain in) there will be no respite. Even if we win our next few games, the first time we trip up will no doubt mean the onslaught is reignited in every tabloid, newsroom and sky sports review.

There is no getting away from this being our worst period at Anfield in a long, long time. With this you expect that questions may be asked but it is the sheer lack of balance which infuriates me. Go and review any of the recent stories and there is not even a mention of the worst injury crisis at Anfield in a long, long time. Funny how those two things have both happened at the same time isn't it?

So I headed off into my excel spreadsheets and the Liverpool website to attempt to make a comparison between this season and last. At this point last season we had amassed 37 points. Which would, this season, see us joint top with Chelsea. Then you look at this season's 24 points leaving us sitting a lowly 7th and creating questions about whether we will even qualify for fourth.

So I decided to review our injuries by implementing a points system. I was going to use Paul Tomkins' relative transfer system but that would then exclude the home grown talent. So I've come up with a simple points system which provides points based on a player's quality as follows:

5 Points - Star Players / Big Money Signings / Courted by Other Top Teams
Alonso, Aquilani, Gerrard, Johnson, Keane, Mascherano, Reina, Torres

3 Points - 1st XI Choice / Solid Player
Agger, Arbeloa, Aurelio, Benayoun, Carragher, Hyypia, Kuyt, Lucas, Pennant, Riera

2 Points - 'Bargain Bin' Signing / Failed to Impress / 2nd XI Choice
Babel, Degen, Dossena, Kyrgiakos, Voronin

1 Point - Youngster
Ayala, Insua, Plessis, Ngog, Spearing

If you're wondering why I have gone from 5 points down to 3, 2 and 1. This is not to skew the figures but to simply recognise the world class players who can make a real difference in any team.

I then sat down and worked out what I consider the top XI currently at Rafa's disposal (when all fit) and calculated their points total:

Reina (5), Aurelio (3), Carragher(3), Agger (3), Johnson (5), Kuyt (3), Mascherano (5), Aquilani (5), Riera (3), Gerrard (5) and Torres (5) - Total of 45 points.

From there I take it you can guess the rest. I trawled back through the starting XI's for the first 16 games of the 2008/9 and 2009/10 seasons and calculated as a % of the total put out for each match day (I'll refer to the % as 'team quality' herein). Hoping they would show the impact of this season's injuries and whether there is any correlation to our points total.

In 2008/9 up to this point of the season our 37 points had been provided from a team with an average team quality of 91.1%. The distribution of the team quality (in 5% increments) being:
95-100%: 3
90-95%: 8
85-90%: 2
80-85%: 3
<80%: 0

So for two thirds of the games the team was running at over 90% team quality and overall never fell below 80%.

Looking then at 2009/10 and our 24 points the team quality provides a very different picture with an average of 85% but then a distribution which tells how traumatic this season's team quality has been affected:
95-100%: 0
90-95%: 4
85-90%: 7
80-85%: 1
75-80%: 3
70-75%: 1

The difference this season is clear. Rafa has not been able to field a 95%+ team once and only 1 in four games have been played with over 90%, compared to 2 out of three last season.The majority of this season so far has been played with a quality of less than 90% and four games at less than 80%.

In the previous season Rafa's team quality fell below 90% for 5 games compared to 12 out of 16 games this season. 3/4 of the games at less than the average from last season.

A couple of other interesting facts:

The only games we have lost over both seasons when we've had a team quality of over 90% have been to 'top 6 sides' (Tottenham, Villa, Chelsea and Arsenal).

Across both seasons we never once won one of our four games with a team quality of less than 80%. Despite three of these games being against 'lesser' opposition (Sunderland, Fulham and Birmingham).

Injuries aren't the only problem at Anfield and we're all aware of that. One of the reasons why our percentages have dropped so badly this season is because our squad is so painfully thin. There have also been form problems with some players, especially early on. Form problems with absolute key players I might add (Carragher, Gerrard and Mascherano).

The injuries though are the main cause of our current dilemma, of that I'm sure. This isn't a case of rolling out excuses because of blind faith. It is simply asking people to sit up and acknowledge the injury problems we have had. If you want to criticise that's fine but provide a balanced argument first. On hang on..... that won't work for your agenda or sell your grubby wares, will it?

Reflecting on the Arsenal game

2009-12-14T17:12:00.000Z

I've purposefully stayed away from my blog and other sites to reflect on the game yesterday. The reason being that even die hard Rafa fans, like myself, have their moments of questioning things, especially after such a torrid run.

After some reflection though I believe the tactics employed for the first half were spot on. I expected Rafa to play Masch and Lucas, and they did exactly what was expected of them. Which was to break down Arsenal's attacks and prevent their sublime passing game. Arsenal looked shell shocked in the first half and really struggled to compete against our pure intensity. We played that well that Wenger 'lost it' like never seen before by established players. For 45 minutes we played them off the pitch.

However with two defensive midfielders you're not going to create many chances. One of our problems being that we didn't take the ones created, especially the Gerrard / Torres one (although Torres in fairness is coming back from injury - be honest, a few games under his belt and we all know the result would have been different).

After going one up and already having your best defensive options on the pitch it's natural to expect us to sit it out and play on the counter attack. Something which Gerrard and Torres were doing relatively well in the first half. Although they do not appear to have quite 'clicked into place' like last season yet.

But as if we hadn't had enough bad luck this season, it was an own goal that effectively ended the game for us. With confidence already fragile and luck always seeming to run against us (beach balls, injuries and refereeing decisions anyone?) we looked like a frightened fighter who had just taken a sucker punch. A punch that led us to quickly losing the intensity, which had seen us convincingly terrorise Arsenal for the first forty five. While Arsenal came at us with a renewed vigour, the flea in the ear from Wenger echoing no doubt. As the half went on hope really diminished as the players returning from injury faded.

The good news is that there were times when the team showed some of the promise of last season. Short periods of quick passing football with vision. But balls though were sometimes just not quite getting there or passes were being played for a run when the player wanted it to feet. The hallmarks of a side which has faced tumultuous changes and is just our of sync at the moment (but with an underlying potential).

With a run like this you ask yourself questions. I have said that Rafa is not beyond reproach and he should not be. I stand by my reasons for giving him more time though (injuries, form of key players, bad luck etc.). The reason I haven't changed my mind since yesterday is that tactically I think his decisions were right. Masch and Lucas won that first half battle for us and he tried to bring in additional creativity after the two Arsenal goals went in. We lost to the bad luck of an own goal, a superb strike from Arshavin and a team with key players just getting back from injury. The tactics were right, the team selection was right; but bad luck remains while our confidence continues to be knocked.

However, three games we should and must win coming up. If we lose any of them (without us losing half the squad through injury or illness) well I think even the most die hard Rafa fans will be starting to ask questions.

You'll Never Walk Alone

Liverpool FC - Title Contenders

2009-12-13T09:06:00.000Z

This is one of those posts that when you start writing it you hope it isn't about to backfire on you. Fate, a bad omen or superstition stops posts like these all over the world? Not me, oh no, I'm going to post it and if it backfires... well I'll just delete it later ;-)

Towards the end of November I questioned whether we should be written off as 'title contenders' and that our moniker should be replaced by '4th place scrappers'. At the time United were 8 points ahead of us (the same difference existing the season before, albeit we were the ones 8 points ahead), a not insurmountable points difference I argued. But Chelsea were a further 5 points ahead of them. I had already pointed out that Chelsea had a potentially points dropping run coming up and the African Cup of Nations to contend with, but a few days later I tweeted that I expected City to definitely beat them. This was following a poor run of results by City with a team that was capable of so much more. I personally think Chelsea just caught them at a time when they had to prove they could be contenders, even if they weren't (if you get what I mean).

So a few weeks on, after concluding that we shouldn't be written off as title contenders, where are we up to? Well, if we win today (and despite us still not having 'fired on all cylinders') we move a step closer. We will have reduced the points gap to United by one point and Chelsea by three. I realise this would only be the first small step but it would be a significant step forward nevertheless.

We finally have our first team back and Rafa has selection headaches today more akin to last season rather than this. A first team I would suggest that is better than United's and as good as Chelsea's. Our squad unfortunately cannot compare to either of them, so keeping our first XI fit is imperative if we are to lead a charge to the top. But, fitness withstanding, I truly believe that a 10 point gap can be closed down against a team which has faltered of late and still has to lose their best players for a period. Lets see how they get on without their best midfielder and striker shall we?

As for United well they have more quality than us when you get past the starting XI, so injuries don't quite effect them in the same way; especially against the lesser teams. But I believe their starting XI is currently punching above their weight. They do not seem to have the cutting edge they had with Ronaldo (who effectively won the title for them last season). Despite some good results I expect they will start to fade and possibly implode when they hit their bad patch, which they will.

We have been written off way to early, by everyone (ourselves included). There is still over half a season to go and we can still pull a rabbit out of the hat. But we must start today and come the 3rd January we will need to have picked up maximum points. This is not impossible once our first XI starts firing on all cylinders. Let's see how the land lies then shall we?

One final thought. I've got good money on Wenger arriving at Anfield today lambasting his luck in the date of this fixture. This would have been a very different post a few weeks ago!

You'll Never Walk Alone

Liverpool's Debt 'Problems'

2009-12-12T14:17:00.005Z

There have been a couple of interesting articles this week in relation to Liverpool's debt 'problems'. So I figured that now should be a time to revisit this old topic. Those of you who've read my posts will know my opinions on our club's debt and its owners. For those visiting for the first time you can find them here:

Liverpool FC and the Blame Game
Liverpool FC Sinking in a sea of Debt
Liverpool FC - Blame Game Decisions Part One (Owners)

The first article is about Tom Hicks' and the ownership of his American sporting ventures. It would appear that Tom's debt woes aren't contained to these shores as he comes under increasing pressure to pay off debts across the pond as well. The potentially enforced sale of the Texas Rangers, for up to $500m, being the possible cure to his financial headaches. This follows on from the recent sale of George Gillette's NHL team, the Montreal Canadiens, presumably for similar reasons.

It is becoming abundantly clear that the worldwide credit crunch is coming back to haunt those individuals involved in leveraged takeovers or expansion. Never forgetting that the wealth of people is based on paper assets, as well as their money, an individuals wealth can vanish quite quickly. This however doesn't appear to be the case with our American owners who are both expected to realise a profit from their recent asset sales.

Back in the days of debt being a perfectly normal way of life the lenders, I believe, were as much at fault as anyone else. How else do you explain Hicks' lenders providing him the opportunity to default on interest payments for up to two years? Oh how the world has changed now, you'd be lucky to miss a single payment these days!

We really need to start thinking about the world as pre and post credit crunch. Before the credit crunch I do not believe there were any doubts that Liverpool FC would have a new stadium well on its way to completion by now. The stadium would no doubt have been completed while also adding star players. How? Well, back then, the banks would have happily continued lending to pretty much anyone with a half decent business record and some personal wealth.

Is this the fault of the businessmen of the world? Well they have to shoulder some of the responsibility but they will, quite rightly, ask you to consider the pressures they were under. You see debt funding, while easy to attain, was one of the ways of creating or maintaining competitive advantage. As an example if you sell widgets but the widget maker up the road has a new machine meaning he can produce and thus sell his widgets cheaper, well you have to react or go out of business. While debts were freely available every 'widget maker' in the world was updating their plant and machinery to create competitive advantage. Market conditions, consumer choice, shareholders and globalisation all placed pressure on senior managers to react (or live with the consequences of non reaction), so invariably they reacted rather than died.

So then consider these normal pressures and add in fan pressure and expectation to the quite clear realisation that with some considerable investment Liverpool FC could, in the fullness of time, surpass the revenue and profit generating machine at Old Trafford. To borrow or not to borrow and get there quicker while leaving my own cash free? I know what my answer would have been.

Sport is a business like no other, where on the pitch success is inextricably linked to off the pitch rewards. You can't just let time stand still with your playing squad while you take a few years to build a new stadium. Likewise you can't invest hundreds of millions into the playing squad without the stadium (and thus revenues) to pay for them over the longer term. Add in the increased requirements for home-grown talents (requiring investment in academies) and unless you are owned by Sultan Loadsofmoney or Oligarch Abramovich you simply can't do both things at once. You have to balance the requirements. Before the credit crunch and while using borrowed money these 'balanced steps' were more like leaps forward whereas post credit crunch they are now quite small. Thus requiring a lot of extra patience.

Borrowing is something that, post credit crunch, is increasingly difficult to do. Reeling from the reverberations of the financial shock waves, financial institutions have now gone the complete opposite way of their pre credit crunch proclivities. This is not only a reaction to the mistakes but also a result of the requirements to retain better capital reserves. Banks quite simply cannot take chances like they used to. Any lending must be first and foremost prudently assessed. Let's be honest many sporting ventures were / are over leveraged and therefore always going to come under close scrutiny. I don't really care what Alex Ferguson says, the fact that he netted over £80m in the summer and spent very little speaks absolute volumes to me. We are not the only ones in this situation. Any sporting venture across the world which is considered to be over leveraged will have to 'cut their cloth'.

What is interesting, to me anyway, is that Liverpool FC probably represents the owners' most saleable asset. However they probably believe that LFC is still an untapped oil reserve that will provide an exceptional return on investment in the future. Hence why, in my opinion, no amount of demonstrating is going to do any good, but potentially harm, with calculating hard nosed businessmen. Especially as, in relation to debt, the marketplace seems to be sorting itself out through banking imposed requirements.

As the debt avenue has closed down the owners need to bring in additional investment capital into the business. Before the credit crunch they could have achieved their targets (and kept all of the returns) without diluting their shareholding. That does not seem feasible now. Which in fairness they appear to have recognised and are attempting to do something about.

So we move onto the frank account from Rafa Benitez this morning and how he has helped the owners with their need to bring down the debt levels. I actually see this as a positive. It becomes clear, for the first time, that Rafa is actually involved and up to speed with the finances of the club. Even more importantly it appears that he is playing his part, being realistic and still not writing off success. It would also appear that he signed his new 5 year contract, despite the callings of Real Madrid, in full knowledge of the situation.

Rafa has taken a very responsible and realistic position in the current situation. Something I actually find quite heartening and something that the 'anti-Rafa brigade' and every journalist should consider (as well as our injuries, delay to Aquilani, loss of form from key players etc.) the next time they decide to open their mouths with their short term views.

The possible down side is that you would expect that key players are also aware of the situation and there could be a knock on effect on morale for our star players, knowing that additional 'star players' may not be arriving any time soon. Although I can't think of any one better to manage this than Rafa.

As I have stated countless time we are on a long term ride people. This is seen throughout every level of the club. We no longer have access to quick cash through borrowing. Therefore things are going to take time.

- The owners, I have no doubt, will move on. When they can realise a good return on their investment. This will take time.

- A new stadium will be built. But we need the global uncertainty over borrowing to subside or an investor to come in. This will take time.

- New players will be brought into the club. But we need the global uncertainty over borrowing to subside or an investor to come in. This will take time.

- We will win the Premiership and other competitions when we get an injury reduced season or new players come in to the squad. This will take time.

Anything negative that anyone wants to do, say or try and impose in the mean time (in relation to the owners or Rafa) will not get us any nearer to the club's current goals. Goals which they seem to be inexorably heading towards. They all need to be left alone and given time to get on with business.

How I Lost 5 Stone

2009-12-08T21:49:00.003Z

Is anyone truly happy with their body shape? If you are, are there other things in your life you aren't happy with? I always found it a difficult balancing act keeping the main areas of my life in sync, with a level happiness.

When I was younger I was as thin as a stick and it didn't matter what I ate it just didn't stay on. In my teens I was 6' 2" and kind of gangly looking. But in later life, a few years back and after the birth of my second son Kai, I was settled and things were good (or so I thought). I'd just taken on a new job and I was earning good money with a company car etc. Ironically while I was at my most settled I also put more and more and more weight on. I'd already added some significant podge in the run up to Kai being born. Without even realising it I soon, slowly and surely, added more to my significant waistline.

Me when Kai was born

This picture was taken with still about another two stone to go on. There aren't many pictures of me from those days (those which do exist have probably been burnt by the ex-wife in some sort of ritual). As you can see though the fat face is hidden. There is another picture of me in work and my face is like a cartoon characters, very round!

I said above "without realising it", you kind of just justify things. My wife (at the time) was shrinking my clothes and those pesky clothes companies kept changing their sizes. Before I knew it my wife had shrunk the clothes before she even washed them and those clothes companies were making me buy 48" waist trouser instead of my old 36" - bastards!

Reality set in after I took on another new job. The weight kept increasing and I had a meeting with one of our insurance companies in Leicester. When I got there the lift was broken and I had to haul my fat, lardy arse up three flights of stairs. When I got to my floor I literally had to stop and compose myself while my lungs screamed for more air and my head was starting to weigh up where the nearest person was should I collapse. It was time to do something!

There was a problem though. I love food. Not the posh, rich food. I'm talking proper junk food - kebabs, burgers, pizzas etc. By the way you should always know you have a problem when the takeaway delivery man recognises your voice on the phone, knows you by name and prioritises your order as 'you're a good customer'!

So I loved food and knew that I'd tried cutting down in the past and it hadn't worked, so exercise would have to be my salvation. But again there was another problem. I'd had exercise fads before and they were just that; fads which lasted about a month (if I was lucky). Hmmmm problems, problems!

I had to break this down like I would break down a business problem. Inputs, outputs and production problems to convert the inputs into better outputs. While I was doing this I was re-introduced to Tony Robbins and I used his ideas as my starting blocks. So some of the following ideas are mine while other belong to him. As a side note if there is something out of balance in your life (relationships, work, money, body) I strongly recommend you check Tony out - he's a bit of a hero of mine.

First off I shocked myself into doing something, as if the near fatal stair incident wasn't enough! This is imperative as you need to know the size of the problem and you need to shock yourself into action. Mirror - check, alone - check, naked - check, from there I made an honest assessment of myself. Then I worsened that assessment to really shock myself and by the end of it I recognised that I was a big, fat, unattractive slob. Man I was ugly and if I did't stop then, well Jerry Springer would soon be round with a helicopter and a winch.
CHANGE NUMBER ONE COMPLETE - I recognised that I had a problem and I shocked my fat ass into doing something - I also stopped justifying things with pathetic excuses

Now I'd always used time as an excuse. Busy in work, family commitments, the car needs fixing and the telly needs watching - I deserve some me time for gods sake. Yet it was 'me time' I had been neglecting. I had allowed myself to become this size because I hadn't given myself time to do something about it. One of Tony's mantras is that you have to give yourself an hour everyday. It doesn't have to be for exercise but you need an hour for yourself. I would have that hour and I would use it for exercise. Now I'd also heard that after 6 months of exercising it becomes addictive. So I vowed that for 6 months I would exercise every day for one hour. Interestingly some of my best ideas for work came about in those hours.
CHANGE NUMBER TWO COMPLETE - I knew I deserved the time and gave it back to myself

Now it's important to note that I'd made plans like this in the past, as you do. I then waited for life to get back in the way and provide some excuses, which it did. Not this time though. That very same day I went straight to JJB and I bought a weights bench and loose weights. When I got home I immediately set them up. I'd dabbled with weight training before so I knew the score. I then went online and ordered my first batch of supplements from Maximuscle to aide my training. After which I called my Uncle who I used to play squash with and arranged a weekly game, I joined the squash leagues and I arranged to play football. Within three hours I'd taken actions which would set me up on my way for my 6 months.
CHANGE NUMBER THREE COMPLETE - I took action and I didn't procrastinate, I'd invested in 'project me' and thus committed myself to it. I started exercising that day.

The last step was the hardest for me. I knew I had to cut down the amount of junk food I ate. But with my renewed vigour and love of life I could do this. What was important for me though was not cutting everything out. I always tell people that if I want a burger or a kebab I'll have one. Listen this isn't rocket science people and forget the fads or anything else. I only ever considered the calories and the fat content and you can treat them both the same. Simplify - take a plastic bag that can hold 10 apples now put in 10 apples (what you eat) and then take out the 10 apples you burn normally in a day. Now put in 12 apples for 5 days and take out what you normally burn in a day. The bag stretches a bit like your belly would doesn't it? So I knew that if I put 12, 13 or 14 apples in my bag then I had to burn the other apples off. On a normal day I would shrink my bag of 'considerable appleage' by burning off more apples. This was the way I looked at it. So I ate what I wanted, but with the proviso that every day I'd burn off more than I ate... EVERY DAY! So it was a mixture for me. I started eating better but I still treated myself when I wanted to.
CHANGE NUMBER FOUR COMPLETE: I simplified, I didn't look at fads and I changed my apple inputs and outputs

Other things helped me along the way as well. I'd always had the desire when I was younger to get bigger (muscle wise) and this was an opportunity. I also thought about how people saw me and how I wanted them to see me. Listen I'm no oil painting but at the time I was round and I didn't want to be seen as round. My first stone came off in a week, my first two stone within a month. Then people started to notice and that drives you on. While I did my weights I listened to Tony Robbins' CD's, they are perfect for training to. Listening to someone so positive giving you guidance is amazing, well it was for me. Others may just prefer to listen to dance music!

Initially I also took the diet thing a bit more seriously and I set out some simple rules for myself. I took a box of cereal to work and I had cereal 2 - 4 times a day with a meal in the evening. I no longer had lunch and dinner as two big meals. If I had a business lunch then I would have a sandwich or cereal for dinner. But these again were simple rules I created from my simply 'apples' theory. I never looked at fad diets and have never felt the need to.

After the first couple of stone though your body tends to adjust and the weight loss starts to slow down. There is also something inside you going 'you've done it... well done, now go get a kebab'. For me I had set out a 6 month plan, I wanted to be addicted. I stuck to my guns and can honestly say that after 6 months I was! Although not in the sense you may think. I would say a normal addiction is the desire for the rush of the experience, whatever that may be. Exercise addiction is different in my opinion. You don't really crave the rush of exercise you just sit there feeling guilty, and if you've shocked yourself right, worrying that the 'bellys gonna get you'! This is usually enough to get me back in the gym. These first 6 months were the most important of my longer term life.

There are pitfalls though and you often need to just re-adjust:

Reaching the plateau

Whether your dealing with weight loss through diet, exercise or both you generally reach a point where your body adjusts itself. At these times I have always found that I had to shock my system again.I've usually done this by changing my diet for a couple of weeks or usually by changing my workout routines.Interestingly sometimes the shock is actually a rest. I usually take an entire week off every three months to give my body chance to recuperate.

Real life sometimes gets in the way

Last year in November my Nan passed away. She was an important part of my life. Needless to say my alcohol and junk food intake increased and my training decreased. I found it quite hard to get back into a routine. Then it was Xmas and New Year (more alcohol with no exercise). Then I think general apathy set back in. Losing the routine and dealing with the bereavement meant my addiction guilt wasn't really working. It actually took someone commenting on a picture that I'd 'porked a bit' to get me back into action. Don't get me wrong I'd creeped to about 18.5 stone and nowhere near where I started. So I took the picture and I put it on an A4 piece of paper. On it I wrote "No junk food, train every day. Stop being a fat bastard". I posted them all over the house and got my ass back in gear. I shocked myself back into it again, I put Tony on the iPod and trained even harder. Interestingly I was immediately addicted again.

The time is sometimes hard to find

I make it sound so easy don't I when I say 'find an hour every day'? It isn't always easy and you have to work hard at it. Again I found some cheats for myself. Sometimes I worked late or I had other commitments so I really didn't have the time to train in the evening. I employed a substitution method. Every time I lost an evening, the next morning I got up at 5am to get the day before's session in. I am lucky to be able to work flexible hours so I'd utilise lunch breaks as well where required. I said find an hour I didn't specify when you had to find it.

When it comes to training I utilise a blend of strength and cardio work. Weight training, as well as getting me bigger, has delivered other benefits. The pure mechanics of what you put your body through means that it continues using energy and burning calories (in the recovery stage) after the actual exercise has taken place. I play squash, which is one of the highest calorie burning sports and I play football. I prefer competitive exercise as it keeps the mind active. Football remains the only sport though where I truly switch off. When my Nan was battling with cancer it was the only hour and half a week where I forgot. It all comes crashing back as I'm walking off the pitch though, but for that time I felt free and still do. We also have a running machine in the house so I aim for 2/3 cardio days and 3/4 strength days with a rest day each week.

Me last year before Nan passed away

If you can afford it and have the space I recommend having your own exercise equipment at home, in its own room. Remove the barriers of having to go to the gym and have that constant reminder.

I have eventually got to a stage where I have a settled routine now. Next year, to get where I want to though, I have a decision to make. It will require a lifestyle change in diet and exercise. I'm not sure if I want to go that far. Maybe I'll be posting again at the end of next year though with phase 2!

So now I'm 5 stone lighter and in 38" jeans (I can squeeze into 36" but I'd be kidding myself to say they're comfy). I want to lose another stone and a half but it's hard while trying to get bigger as well. The picture was taken before my Nan passed away and I'm pretty much back to this but bigger. The thing I like about this picture, apart from my hidden face (still shy) is that it is not after a workout. I always look bigger after a workout.

So in summary its not hard but it does take commitment. After 6 months though if you do this through exercise you will be addicted to it (in a funny way), if not before 6 months. You'll probably slip just like I did but it's important to pick yourself up and start again. It should be very rare that you slip back to the start, as you should have caught it before then. I won't buy bigger clothes for myself as this is a sign, much like being told that I'm 'porking a bit'.

Hopefully if you've read this you've found some interesting tips. Doing what I do won't suit everyone but the building blocks are the same.

1. Recognise the problem and stop making excuses
2. Shock yourself and tell yourself how fat you are, go OTT to get the message through
3. Give yourself the time - you'll be amazed what you accomplish and what ideas you come up with
4. Don't procrastinate - do it now, if it's night - order the stuff on line! You must commit.
5. Simplify your diet and work out what's right for you - stay away from fads!
6. When you slip make sure you realise it (don't buy the next size up) and start again
7. Continually shock your system by using varying workouts or diet

Most importantly set yourself objectives and not rules to live by. I'm going to train 7 times a week is achievable while your being flexible with yourself. I'm going to train at 8am every morning no matter what happens isn't always going to work.

Set your targets and then stick to them. I hope I haven't patronised in this blog entry as that was not my intention.

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Tony Robbins can be followed on Twitter @tonyrobbins the guy has 1.6 million followers and is amazing!

Dear Liverpool FC Owners - Show Your Commitment... NOW!

2009-12-07T17:46:00.000Z

In my last LFC post about the business end of things. I suggested that one of our owners' possible failings had been a lack of financial commitment. This was mainly in relation to the way they had funded the purchase of Liverpool Football Club. Which was initially debt free, with debts then loaded on post purchase. Within the same posting I concluded that this was part of a longer term plan which could provide success to the club.

Now I am all for the trek to the end of the long term rainbow being a golden sky at the end of the storm but anyone in their right mind can see that there is a short term, urgent need to increase our attacking options. From a footballing perspective, as I said yesterday, the addition of Aquilani should bring back the defence/attack balance to the team. Had Alonso not left, and despite how well his current 'stand in' has performed, Lucas would not have had a look in so far this season. Alonso and Mascherano would be playing in the centre - the defensive bulldog coupled with the creative visionary. Alonso's replacement has been delayed, but is on the way - hopefully this week. Unfortunately for us the problems of this delay have been compounded by the concurrent loss of Gerrard and Torres (to name only a couple on the physio's table), which were unforeseen.

It is a very similar story to last season and we simply do not have the squad to deal with losing, in effect, three key players (Torres, Gerrard and Alonso/Aquilani); especially when you consider the quality they bring. We urgently need another attacking / creative option, another visionary who can see what other 'good' players can't. To my mind we need someone who can play either in Torres' role or just behind him. Some say there would be a reluctance for someone to come and warm the bench, but it's a long season. Also as a stand in for Gerrard or Torres how many games would they have started this season so far? We can't take the chance of failure for CL football on either David N'Gog (who has played well for his years) or no more injuries for the rest of the season to key players.

If I can see it and others can see it then Rafa can certainly see it. He knows how to fix the problem but he can't because it comes down to money, plain and simple. That suggested lack of commitment is to be tested this January. I very much doubt that Gillette and Hicks will ever win over the hardcore protesters. But they can and must appease us neutrals. Rafa must be given funds in January to bolster our attacking options.

I know all about the credit crunch and I can see the long term plan; I know the limitations of operating a business post credit crunch. But right now there is a desperate short term requirment and you must find the funds to allow our manager to keep us competitive for the rest of the season. To rise from the ashes of the first half of the season as the team in the second half that no one wants to play.

I have seen the fans, well the majority of them, rally behind the club. They are there together with the senior management team of LFC. I've even seen Arsene Wenger (a possible closet reds fan?) getting behind our manager. So from a neutral who believes he has taken a pragmatic view to date it's time to show your commitment and to find the funds whether that's from an investor or your own money. In simple terms, it's time to put up or sell up!

Response to Rafa Critics

2009-12-06T13:47:00.001Z

I just posted the following to a site some of you may not visit any more and thought some of you may like to agree or disagree with my logic?

Our squad has looked terribly thin at times this season. However, we have also had one of the worst run of injuries for a long time. In fairness to Rafa he can only work with what he has. He could have gone the Houllier way of doing things by buying what were predominantly average players at the £5 to £14m range. You then end up with a more equalised squad so injuries aren't felt as badly.

However, this didn't work for Houllier (or Roy Evans for that matter), we were always the 'nearly men'. With a limited budget Rafa has tried to bring in players who can make a difference over a season and any of them over say £12m (Torres, Masch, Johnson) have had that affect. We came very close last season but the loss of Alonso together with injuries and the delayed full debut of Aquilani have all had a detrimental affect so far this season. But the ingredients and long term strategy is right in my opinion.

I think Aquilani is a key figure and will re-balance the attack/defence. It isn't working with Masch and Lucas, from an offensive perspective, but they are the best fit pairing at the moment in my opinion, especially given our defensive lapses!

Realistically we don't have the budgets of the top 2 (or some other teams), or the youth development set up of Arsenal. Rafa has recently taken over matters with youth development and some patience is required in this regard. He is having to stage bringing in the star players who can make a difference. Look at what the hacks at the papers say. A few seasons ago we were a one man team (Gerrard), then we were a two man team (Gerrard, Torres) - hopefully towards the end of this season or next we'll be a three man team (Gerrard, Torres and Aquilani). But circumstances dictate this slow progress, not Rafa. Unless of course you want a team filled with average players again?

People continue to take a short term view at a time when a longer one is required. Time for additional quality players to be 'staged in' and the youth development to be overhauled is needed. There is a reason why Rafa was signed for 5 years.

In relation to Aquilani I think Rafa is being ultra cautious with him. In fairness I dread to think what stories will be written if he is crocked in his first full debut. None of us know the full state of his fitness and we need to bide our time for someone who could be an imperative player in the future.

The man eats, sleeps and drinks football. I'm sure he is fully aware of what needs to be done, starting with another striker to 'fill in' when required, once resource is available.

What H&G Have Done Wrong

2009-12-05T10:22:00.001Z

First, a suggestion if you haven't read blame game part one, I suggest you do so first.

So in the words of Leo Gehts *shrugs shoulders hands up* "ok, ok, ok, ok, ok!".

I have stated time and time again that I am H&G neutral. Despite this I continue to be accused of being pro H&G and 'sticking up for them'. This is not true! However, on reading my posts (and being honest with myself) I can see why this opinion may have been formed by some.

I was also told that I don't offer a balanced opinion, just my own. Again, hands up, I used the wrong terminology. I try to offer a balanced argument. For example some people say that a calculator is no good as a dictionary, while I like to say its no good for looking up words but really good for working out sums.

By the same token this post should not be seen as me changing my opinion of our owners, it remains neutral. But I've sat down with one target in mind - to look at what H&G have done wrong and what has gone wrong since their takeover. After all there is a reason why I'm not pro H&G isn't there? So I'll try and explain in more detail why I'm not pro H&G. I will though try and continue to balance my arguments, as that's my way and I believe the most effective way of reaching agreement.

Let's get the boring regurgitated stuff out of the way first. They decided to make a mockery of the entire club with their very public spat and approach to Klinsmann. This was quite a culture shock for most Liverpool fans as Moores and Parry, while not being the greatest commercially in my opinion, had conducted themselves 'behind closed doors'. Despite the current public face of H&G appearing to be one of unity no one really knows if they are at peace with each other or how long that peace may last. Internal politics are prevalent within most organisations across the world, some are minor skirmishes while others turn out to be full blown hostile takeovers. The full blown ones very rarely lead to long term peace or stability while all parties remain (and I speak from first hand experience - but that's another story).

Now one of the problems is the media (as usual) who very quickly targeted into the H&G skirmish and have possibly, as they do with other things, blown it out of proportion. So we don't really know exactly how major their fall out was or how genuine their current public unity is. Although the interview of Tom Hicks would indicate it was pretty major! This should be of genuine concern to all stakeholders as I doubt longer term stability can be guaranteed if there are still problems in their working relationship.

The Klinsmann situation baffles me to some degree. However, none of us really know how much political noise Rafa was making at the time. We do know that he had very clear ideas about how to take the club forward (from a footballing perspective) which included overhauling the entire footballing structure from grass roots scouting up to the first team. A process which is now under way. Again, these kind of politics are seen all the time in businesses and it would appear that Rafa is happy with how things have turned out. I believe he is still committed to the cause and I've not heard him complaining about a lack of transfer funds. He knows he still has a lot of 'fan power' and as such I believe if he wasn't happy we would know about it. It's not like he has ever been shy is it?

The owners though have to hold up their hands and admit to these mistakes. As I said earlier these kind of things happen in organisations all over the world. They are very rarely played out in the media though and there is really no need for it to happen, if managed correctly.

So what else have they done wrong? Well there is no getting away from the fact that we are in more debt than we have ever been. I have always looked at this from a business perspective and as such have accepted the leveraged assets as a way of getting things done. Especially given the comparison against the other top 4 clubs (as I posted here 'LFC - Sinking in a sea of debt?').

I guess though that (at its peak) debts of up to c. £350m are scary to most people. We are talking huge amounts of money owed to banking institutions. I have never accepted the fact that they lied about 'never putting debts onto the club' as I posted in the blame game part one. However, the possibility that they have been disingenuous exists. I find it hard to believe that they never planned to borrow to move the club forward. Indeed they have a track record of borrowing against a company's assets to drive growth. I guess the real question is, had they been up front from the start would there be peace, or would the disgruntlement have just started sooner?

I truly believe there was every intention to build a new stadium as it was integral to driving revenues. The timing of the credit crunch and how it affected our banks fits too neatly for us to dismiss the credit crunch as the real reason why our stadium is on hold. They were foolish though to offer any time scale on starting the stadium when they did (especially one so short). They surely already had in mind that the initial plans would not be acceptable to their longer term plans. So why not just come out, there and then, and say so.

The real problem of their own making, as happened on the pitch last season, was our expectations were raised to an all time high. We went from being a club living within its means to all of a sudden not being owned by one wealthy man but two. While one of them was wealthy by 'normal' standards the other, well he was a billionaire and had appeared in Forbes' top 100 rich list. This was it wasn't it? Superstar players, a new stadium and success, back to the good old days. Then the players started coming in and our expectations go even higher and this is it.... here we go... players, loans, stadium, credit crunch... screech... crash!

At the time of the takeover I'm pretty sure not many fans had done any research on our new owners. They've done plenty now and the way they make their millions becomes clear. They leverage a businesses assets to drive growth quickly. This had become increasingly common business practice across the world during the borrowing frenzy seen over the last decade. The Glazer deal was probably the first high profile sporting takeover utilising this method of borrowing within the UK. However, their borrowing was to simply buy the club without the need to immediately drive revenue increases.

Interestingly while the protesters in Manchester have been quiet recently there do appear to be rumblings again. The discontent 'up the road' may soon return to the fore and the chants of too much debt, interest payments, no star player purchases and those damn Americans will return. For two so vehemently rival clubs the similarities between us and them is astonishing!

In business you start up and you achieve growth. That growth drives revenues which in turn increases profits. You can then take those profits out of the business or reinvest to provide more growth, revenues and thus profits. Business owners who reinvest quite often have an exit strategy, for on completion of driving the value within the business. Once they have increased the value of the business and the brand they can then 'cash in'.

The recent 'lending frenzy' allowed an easier way to get to the 'cashing in' stage. Instead of using profits to drive growth you in essence borrow future profits allowing for accelerated growth which in turn drives revenue increases quicker. There is a certain amount of logic in doing this. You don't tie up personal cash, which instead you use as tacit security for the banks. That is to say the banks feel secure in lending money to H&G because they know of their wealth. By not requiring the use of your own funds you can spread your risks and grow several businesses at once.

But there is a downfall to operating this way, which we have seen. There appears to be a lack of commitment to the business from the owners. In simple terms they appear to have nothing to lose. If Liverpool Football Club fails it won't affect their bank balances. This creates the suspicion we are seeing from some fans. Especially when you consider where our expectations were. Fans want to see that debt, if we have to have it, mean something by way of new players and stadia.

There is nothing wrong with a football club having debts to drive growth. Indeed when our debts are less than half of our direct competitors (comparing apples with apples) it could be said we are in a healthy position financially speaking. A few people have come on and said they don't care about comparing us this way, despite there being a quite logical reason for doing so.

There is a very simplified argument doing the rounds about our debts, but the debts are a realistic component of growth for any business. The problem is the commitment, or lack of it, and not the debts. If H&G had match funded our debts from their personal wealth, instead of using it as 'tacit security' I doubt there would be a problem. They would have shown their commitment and we would have a stadium underway or half the debts. But in my opinion it is the lack of commitment and not the debts which is the underlying problem.

The other problem with the whole situation, as I have said in the past, is the real lack of communication from the club. Now in fairness to H&G, we can't tell them to wind their necks in one moment (when they're plastered all over the papers) and then tell us everything that's going on the next. However, throughout this whole situation there appears to be a lack of information about the future direction of the club. What is the strategy?

I know that Spirit of Shankly have met with the senior management of the club but not all of us are members. I found some useful information from the meeting minutes, so why not publish them on the LFC website? This by the way isn't a dig at SOS, who I have stated on several occasions I have respect for, but they don't necessarily represent the views of the entire LFC fan base. The club should be communicating with all of us through the medium which is already in place.

So in summary they have:

Played political games within the organisation

Been unrealistic about some of their plans

Inappropriately treated some staff (Rafa - Klinsmann fiasco)

Possibly been disingenuous - in that they will have presumably known their plans at the outset

Shown a lack of commitment by using debt instead of personal finance

Haven't communicated effectively

My opinion - (it's not right or wrong, it's an opinion)

These are all symptoms of the problem rather than actually being the problem. The problem is Liverpool FC has become a fully fledged business. A business which uses modern business practices and takes risks in order to increase the return on investment. Think back to the origins of football clubs. They were generally community driven and the football clubs were an integral part of their local community. How times have changed! The 6 problems I have noted above are all part of business. Within businesses most or all of them, depending on the business, are encountered on a regular basis.

There has been a change in modern time football in that football clubs turnover and make serious amounts of money. This pushes football clubs into the business arena and with each push there is a pull effect from the football club's community origins. While I would imagine Spirit of Shankly has members from all around the world, I suspect the core of its membership is from the local areas. These are the people who are most affected by this pull effect and they are quite rightly upset, confused and in need of answers; which are not forthcoming.

Hicks and Gillette are fully fledged hard nosed businessmen. They have made hundreds of millions by being this way. They no doubt have a very clear plan and exit strategy. Due to years of control under a management team, which didn't take advantage of the vast commercial possibilities, they saw the clear opportunity Liverpool FC represented. The most successful team in British football and all of this unrealised commercial potential. Unrealised potential means hundreds of millions of pounds in this case. Do they have an emotive tie to the club? I doubt it. They are businessmen who saw an opportunity and are taking it. The good thing out of all this is that the true value can only be realised by achieving on and off the pitch success. So H&G must invest in both.

For all of those fans though who have an emotive tie to the club, who do care about the club from more than a financial perspective, it's hard to see it being pulled away from its community roots. It's even harder to see the risks being taken to get to the exit strategy of H&G, for great financial reward, without the financial commitment. I say 'without the financial commitment', none of us actually know whether personal guarantees have been given on the loans for Kop Holdings.

So why am I neutral?

Well as a business (and I admit I do tend to look at things from this perspective) they are running it very, very well. The business is not, as far as we can see, in any danger of collapse and is not reliant on H&G for the long term (which is an important point to me). Yes it has debts but there is supposedly only actually £105m against the club itself. Which for the progress we have made is actually a good deal for LFC. This level of debt would be attractive to a new buyer should Kop Holdings collapse. Also consider what £105m is in relation to the assets it's secured against, especially the playing squad.

The debts when H&G came in were c.£45m so what does £60m buy? New players of a quality which are a step up from Moores/Parry signings, investment in the academy and youth set up, increased wages for star players, remaining 50% share in LFC.tv and the 'soft costs' for the new stadium. I won't go through the Kop Holdings debts again here (refer to blame game part one). We have also significantly improved commercially and the push towards the exit strategy is well and truly under way.

We can't force a change of ownership and if we could I don't know who else we would want to come in. Another businessman would be, well... another businessman. A sugar daddy would take risks and leave us dependant on him in the long term, a la Abramovich.

I'm not convinced fan ownership is the way to go as it would put too much pressure on results (we've already seen the knee jerkers at work this season). Yet at the same time this is the clearest way to push the club back to its community roots. However, I believe that business expertise and backing is required to make us truly competitive in the global environment.

Do I have a suggestion?

Well kind of. For the best benefit of the club as a whole I would like to see a mixture of community and business working together. I'd like to see some of the club owned by businesses and some by fans. I don't particularly think the club is served very well by being owned privately by one or two individuals as any businessman is going to be trying to make their millions at 'exit time'. Millions which could be ploughed into the club.

There will be even greater resentment of H&G when they do leave with their bags of cash, but this is private enterprise and that's what makes the world turn money wise. It's just impinging on more emotive enterprises these days. Let's be honest you don't care who owns Tesco or even your local grocery store or how many billions any of them make. But you have an emotive tie to your football club and we can't just go to Asda if we don't like it can we!

The best answer to me is through an already existing method. Float the business on the stock exchange and have this joint collaboration between fans and business. The owners can still keep a good, but not controlling, majority and the rest of the business can be owned through faceless organisations and the fans. But I doubt it will happen. The owners quite clearly have a plan and I doubt much will get in the way of that plan, and they do own the club after all.

Final thought

One final thought and yes for this bit, for humanity, I will stick up for them. H&G are human, they are not evil dictators and they do not deserve some of the things which are apparently happening to them (hate mail, abuse etc.).

They are businessmen and what they are doing is what business people do day in and day out. They make millions and billions of pounds for themselves. They have a certain skill set to do this that not everyone has. At the same time they employ people, they give to charity, they pay taxes, they fund local community projects and they fund the local community through rates etc.

This is today's society and the way in which it works. We have every right to be worried or angry but for every hate letter or email and for every hurled insult you weaken your position. Some people think this is the only way to get through to them. It is the wrongest and most in-appropriate way to get through to them.

If I was them and had no emotive tie to the club I know what I'd be thinking from a business perspective. I'd be thinking 'screw you, I'm going to stay here in America and I'm going to squeeze every last penny out of this club and I don't care what state I leave it in. You want to see greedy capitalist behaviour well here it comes.'

If you want them out of Anfield you should tread carefully and you should think and re-think your plans until you are certain you are heading along the right path. Strategically and politically every step must be fully considered and all implications weighed up. We all have limits and as businessmen you are more likely to push H&G past theirs, rather than get them to tuck their tails between their legs and disappear. Until they've made a return on their investment of course.

The 'Dubai Effect' Still to be Felt by LFC?

2009-12-02T08:18:00.009Z

I recently wrote on the potential side step we took in relation to DIC's proposed takeover which fell through. Given the recent goings on in Dubai it is possible that fate dealt us a kind blow during the ownership wrangle. It is unfortunate then that Liverpool FC may still find itself within the turbulence of what is happening in Dubai.

When reading the articles about Dubai last night two notable names kept coming up. Reports suggest that the bank most likely to be affected by the Dubai fall out is our shiny new sponsor Standard Chartered. It is unknown at this juncture as to how indebted the Dubai companies in mention are to Standard Chartered. Worryingly though there is now talk of a second wave to the credit crunch - with our new sponsor at the fore front of it. Standard Chartered fared quite well during the credit crunch, hence their ability to enter into a record breaking (at the time) shirt deal with Liverpool. It is early days with the Dubai 'situation' but Standard Chartered will certainly be a name to keep an eye on.

The other name which has been thrown into the mix of the potentialy affected is RBS. RBS is a different 'kettle of fish' altogether, having been battered by the first wave of the credit crunch. In the blame game part one I put together the timing of their demise and it's impact on Liverpool Football Club. Following the first wave of the credit crunch Liverpool's owners had to pay off £60m of the debt capital. This was despite the club being in a relatively stronger position financially than its competitors (in relation to debt). Is it conceivable that a second wave of bad debts (not from Anfield) to hit the bank could mean they have to impact on their good customers again? It is certainly possible that they will once again have to shore up their own finances. Any more demands for capital repayment will no doubt have an impact on any transfer budget and future growth plans for the club.

On the plus side this may yet all blow over and in a year's time some will be back wishing that DIC had bought us. Many are suggesting that Abu Dhabi will still ride to Dubai's rescue, see it's not what you know...

Premier League Agents - Are LFC Effective at Negotiating?

2009-12-01T18:09:00.004Z

Unless you have had your head in a cloud over the last couple of days you won't have missed the story about agent's fees in the Premier League. This remains a subject which will continually be revisited over the coming years and will no doubt come under closer scrutiny with each review. A staggering £70.5m has been spent on agent's fees over the past year, which is more turnover than some of the clubs operating in the Premiership.

Now we all have to 'earn our corn' and I doubt anyone will argue that a fair day's work deserves a fair day's pay but at first sight these figures seem high. Especially when you consider that the fees account for a few hundred transactions. Now I'm not going to argue any further over the rights or wrongs of agents as I'm sure they will be dealt with over time.

What did interest me is whether or not the figures can show us anything else. Now before I get to the crux of this entry let me give you the problems with the data I am about to present:

- The figures I have picked up are from Page 56 of the sport section in the Telegraph. While all of the agents' fees are provided, together with total transfer amounts, they do not include figures for player contract renewals. So in our case this would include hefty contracts (and presumably agent fees) for both Gerrard and Torres.

- The data presented also includes some transactions from previous years, presumably because of accounting complexities.

- The data provided doesn't give you the number of transactions involved.

However, as a (very rough) indicator I wondered whether the figures would show how the 'business' performed when negotiating with agents. As a percentage of the transfer fees we should be able to assess how effective the 'haggling' was.

I first of all assessed against player purchases only. This is because I believe the lion's share of the fees will be generated from player purchases rather than the odd occasion of trying to move a player on. While we appear third in the list of fees in the papers (for total fees paid) the picture does change when assessed like this.

Transfer fee as % against player sales only - other notable clubs in bold

1. Chelsea 48.4%

2. Bolton 32.7%

3. West Ham United 27.7%

4. Fulham 24.5%

5. Portsmouth 20.6%

6. Arsenal 16.8%

7. Liverpool 16.5%

8. Wigan 14.3%

9. Blackburn 11.5%

10. Everton 9.1%

11.Tottenham 8.0%

12. Man City 7.4%

13. Burnley 7.0%

14. Hull 6.8%

15. Wolverhampton 6.2%

16. Sunderland 6.1%

17. Birmingham 4.9%

18. Aston Villa 2.8%

19. Man United 3.8%

20. Stoke 2.2%

Chelsea's fees are the interesting ones to me and the reason why I started looking into this. How can they have nearly half of their incoming transfer fees as additional agents fees?

I then went on to look at the fees as a percentage of the entire transfer activity.

Transfer fee as % against all transfer activity - other notable clubs in bold

1. Chelsea 29.2%

2. Bolton 19.8%

3. Fulham 12.5%

4. West Ham United 12.0%

5. Liverpool 7.4%

6. Burnley 7.0%

7. Arsenal 6.9%

8. Man City 6.6%

9.Tottenham 5.9%

10. Wolverhampton 5.8%

11. Wigan 5.3%

12. Birmingham 4.9%

13. Hull 4.8%

14. Everton 4.4%

15. Portsmouth 3.7%

16. Blackburn 3.7%

17. Sunderland 3.3%

18. Aston Villa 2.8%

19. Stoke 2.0%

20. Man United 1.0%

Again Chelsea top the table and we are spot on the average fees as a percentage at 7.4%.

Now of course it can be argued that if agent's fees are capped the greater the amount of transfer activity the greater the 'dilution effect' of those capped fees. But then when you look at clubs with similar spending to our £40.4m, say MUFC (£40.3m) and AVFC (£45.3m) their agent's fees are considerably lower than ours. Are they better at negotiating these fees, or is it the renewals of Gerrard and Torres, or the previous year's transactions maybe distorting the figures?

Without any more data I'm afraid I can't go any further, on what I am sure would be a good indicator / analysis of the cost management of transfer fees for agents. The data indicates (and nothing more) that in relation to player purchases we operate within the industry average. I suspect given the Gerrard and Torres renewals we actually operate better than the average.

If I get chance I may dig around for more data, if anyone has any please mail me or comment below.

In Rafa I Trust on Derby Day

2009-11-29T09:32:00.004Z

I really liked Rafa's interview earlier in the week when he talked about the lure of Real Madrid. Real Madrid are quite obviously very close to his heart. According to the interview they were offering him more money personally and more money for player transfers. Given the splurge over the summer I don't think anyone can doubt this.

So why stay? Why not leave our club and run back to his HOMELAND, the CLUB HE SUPPORTED AS A YOUNGSTER, with a BIGGER TRANSFER BUDGET and for MORE MONEY?

Well I think there are two reasons. The first is that the job isn't done yet. For anyone who didn't catch the excellent Gerrard interview in Four Four Two he said "He's (Rafa) a perfectionist: he's obsessed with perfection individually and as a team". In a perfectionist mind I believe leaving now would be hard, if not impossible - a failure. Secondly, and more importantly, he quite obviously has a genuine affection for our club. From day one he has surprised. Whether that's winning the champions league or celebrating in a pub with fans. He very quickly worked his way into the hearts of Liverpool fans, which is where he remains for most.

During the blame game posts (which I started because of our recent run of form) I made my feelings on Rafa very clear and I called for some 'peace time'. Now I realise that not all of my wishes will come true in relation to this but for today I would like to see everyone behind our club and behind Rafa. I realise that not everyone shares my thoughts about Rafa but no one should be in any doubt about his dedication to our club. No one should be in any doubt of his track record and

everyone should review the recent 'blip' against his overall record at Anfield. I'm not going to reel off the statistics here as you've probably seen them a million times already. If not, just go look at his record with our club, then sit down and look at the last ten results. Ask yourself honestly... is this in all likelihood a blip, a bad run of results exacerbated by injuries?

I'll be completing every tweet today with #ynwa and #irwt as a thank you to Rafa. He'll probably never know I was doing it. If we all do it he still may never know we're all doing it. But I don't care if he doesn't see, I don't care if no one sees it trending it's quite simply a thank you. I hope the power of Twitter may do the rest.

If you don't have twitter yet please go and get it, follow me @mcdonaldtaf and re-tweet my tweets and follow any other tweets with #ynwa and #irwt. I would also recommend @paul_tomkins, @lfctv, @robbohuyton and @empireofthekop as must have LFC follows.

Why I'm Saying "No to Ground Share"

2009-11-28T09:48:00.008Z

I have been asked by a few fans about my thoughts on the potential ground share question which has arisen again. Twitter space is so short I thought it best to give some additional information here to back up my 'no' tweets.

Over recent weeks my head has ruled my heart while I have made an analysis of the level of damage being caused by our American owners. I think when you see any Liverpool fans not happy about something, especially given the volume of fans, part of you wants to stand by them. However, as a business minded person and a senior manager myself, I have a degree of empathy for the owners who currently have our club in a relatively healthy position financially.

But when it comes to the ground share I'm afraid I'm going to be all heart. There are many financial and business reasons to ground share. All across the world we are seeing businesses consolidating, especially through these trying credit crunch times. The reason for this is to save on costs and make two businesses operating together more profitable than they would be independently.

For us we would be looking at halving the design, planning and construction costs. Let's be honest we're not talking about chump change here, we are talking hundreds of millions of pounds. We would also see a major acceleration in getting from where we are now to collecting additional revenues. Additional revenues which would help promote the clubs on the pitch success.

Given we are the bigger club and that Everton would surpass their seating expectations (70,000 LFC / 50,000 EFC) I believe we would have a strong negotiation stance to get what we want out of any deal.

So it makes perfect sense, doesn't it? Well no, there are also good reasons from the head why we shouldn't do it. The political fall out would be disastrous should the board of Liverpool even consider this option. There will be no mitigating factors on this one. They gave cast iron guarantees that we would not ground share. Now the world may have changed but to think this is the only option of getting a new Anfield would be wrong in my opinion. I think the owners already know that there would be a major backlash so I don't see it happening anyway. If it does, well I imagine we will see subscriptions for the supporters union increase significantly.

Any organisation has political rumblings inherently built into it. Some are managed very well but there are always conflicts and differences of opinion going on in them. So take our business with its current 'political rumblings' and then add in additional parties from Everton Football Club. Disaster.

Then there's the heart. The biggest problem for anyone looking to make the ground share reality? The fans' hearts. I don't want to ground share, I don't want to share our football club or its property with anyone. I don't want our great football club to have to share with anyone else. We are one of the top clubs in Europe, indeed the world. Why should we have to share? Again, I get angry at the years of mis-management pre-Purslow and I hope he is the man to move us forward commercially. The only rational business decisions for not having a ground share are in the paragraphs above but if you ask me, I can't give you any facts or figures, I just don't want to share.

Politically there is possibly only one way of moving this forward if the board really do want to consider it and after exhausting all other avenues. Early doors they need to set out their reasons why and let others set out their reasons why not. It should be an independently handled vote to the fans and not the board. I would expect a resounding 'no' but stranger things have happened!

Even after typing that last paragraph my LFC loving heart screams 'if it does get built (and it better had) why would we want to share it with anyone, never mind Everton. We are the biggest Merseyside club and its going to stay that way, they are not impinging on our successful image!'

NO TO GROUND SHARE!

Who is this McDonaldTaf idiot?

2009-11-27T17:19:00.007Z

So who is this idiot mcdonaldtaf? Well now there's a question. You see most people do this as their first blog entry but in true mcdonaldtaf fashion the explanation comes after 17 other entries.

First of all let me dispel some myths:

I am not pro Hicks and Gillette (LFC's owners for non LFC followers)

I am not a writer for liverpool-kop.com, I have had two of my posts re-produced there

I am not Jaimie Kanwar

I am not an idiot because I trust in Rafa

I don't like country music

Ok, ok I do like country music but the rest is true!

I am a 33 year old Operations Director for an SME who provide support services to the lettings industry. I have a strong management background going back 15 years in SME's and among my skills I have strong I.T., finance and general management 'expertise' (loosely speaking).

I have a postgraduate diploma in Management and am on the third and final year of my Masters Degree in Management. Which is quite extraordinary given I left school with very little in the way of qualifications. However, I have been hard working and applied myself well. I have also benefited from working with exceptional Managing Directors throughout my career. All of them have shaped me into the manager I am today - and now I in turn (hopefully) teach the managers of tomorrow.

I do weight training 4 times a week (although I'm not as strong or big as I would like), play squash and football once a week. I generally run every other day. Except this week as I'm having a week off due to several niggling injuries. I am a 'chunky unit' rather than a toned skinny geezer. I was at one stage 22 and half stone and looked like a cartoon character with a big round face. I lost 5 stone a few years ago though and now live in eternal fear that 'bellys gonna get me'!

I have three kids (two I don't live with) Kadon, Kai and Abbie Rose. Abbie Rose is the latest addition and as the girl she is being locked in her room till she is 35! I live with my girlfriend (or life partner as she insists on me saying) Sarah who has changed my life over the last couple of years and made me the happiest I have ever been. Finally settled down!

Urm I guess that's it! Feel free to ask any other questions you have, although if you've read this far I would be surprised.

Liverpool Football Club - On the brink of collapse somewhere!

2009-11-27T08:34:00.000Z

This morning in an alternative universe Liverpool Football Club woke up to a brand new world. Over the past 24 hours their owners have found themselves in increasing difficulty as the Dubai Government, who own the club through it investment vehicle DIC, find themselves on the brink of collapse. £44bn has been wiped off the stock of Dubai related companies and the credit ratings of its major companies downgraded.

What does this mean for Liverpool Football Club? Well DIC had followed their usual protocols of applying high leverage against the business assets to support it. The club has benefited from major activity in the transfer market and the building of a new stadium, which is 50% complete. If the Dubai government is unable to reach agreement with its companies' creditors then it could effectively collapse.

This would mean disaster for Liverpool Football Club as it is unlikely that anyone will see the opportunity to make a return on such a highly leveraged business. It is inevitable that work on the new stadium will cease and the possibility of a fire sale of its most prized footballing assets including players Fernando Torres, David Villa, David Silva and Steven Gerrard are more likely than ever. Given the debts were placed directly onto the club and guaranteed by DIC rather than through a special investment vehicle (holding company) it is highly likely that Liverpool will face a points deduction from the FA.

One of the truly great clubs of all time woke up this morning and found itself on the brink of falling down a deep black financial hole.

----------------------------------------------------

Back to reality.

What would have DIC done that would have been any different to H&G? In a world where credit was easy companies grew on the back of leverage against assets. What I believe would have been different would have been the sheer level of debts. Much like CFC face destruction if Abramovich fails, so would we.

IF H&G fail then LFC will be bought and we will not (I believe) face any points deduction. The debt levels are more than acceptable to a potential buyer at the moment and the company is run by an effective management team who are delivering its potential after years of neglect. This turnaround will take time and patience is required. Much like it is with Rafa at the moment.

We can't go out and buy players without taking on extra risk. It is a balancing act and one which Christian Purslow and his team is managing very very well!

Please do not comment on this page unless you have evidence of business reasons why H&G are bad for LFC. I don't want emotive comments, I want cold hard facts. Before you do, go do some research. I have done a lot for you and would refer you back to Blame Game Part One.

This morning I woke up and thought, thank god for that!

A response to Henry Winter for his tripe today!

2009-11-26T07:52:00.001Z

Ok I need to keep this brief, but let me direct you (in response to your article today) in the right direction for some of the answers you think WE need.

Why is Benítez so cautious with Alberto Aquilani?

- why don't you ask the medical staff who will be providing their expertise and knowledge

How can the Italian acquire the match fitness he needs if he is used only a minute here and there?

- good question, look above. He'll be ready when he's ready. Out of interest what article would this be if he had played, got injured and was out for 6 months "Rafa rushes back Aquilani despite medical advice"? Let me guess "Benitez's stubborn streak continues as he defies medial expertise to play a not fully fit...."

Can Martin Skrtel deal with zonal marking?

- No, he gets played there in our system using zonal marking because he can't deal with it. Last season proved that.... oh hang on.... are you being serious?

Can Liverpool hold on to Javier Mascherano next year?

- Ask the board, the club coming in to buy him, Mascherano or his agent.

Can Benítez bring through more home-grown players, stiffening the team’s resolve?

- Ask him when he's had more time with control over the academy - as you refer to within your article.

Why has Ryan Babel got the hump?

- Ask Ryan Babel, he seems happy enough to whinge and moan elsewhere!

Are the finances so bad that Sotiris Kyrgiakos is the best centre-half Benítez could draft in?

- Ask the board.

Does he really believe “100 per cent’’ that Liverpool can finish in the top four when Manchester City have more money and Tottenham Hotspur more goals?

- No it's just a dream, again are you serious? City for all their money couldn't beat our depleted side and Spurs have just had their goals increased by a pretty freakish result by normal standards.

Is Lucas really good enough?

-*yawn* have you actually watched us play this season? Should have been MOTM against United and has been a silver lining during our injury crisis (yes we've had one of those)

Does he regret selling Stephen Warnock?

- Ask the board if he had to sell to buy.

Did he alienate Xabi Alonso by going for Gareth Barry?

- Xabi Alonso has answered this a million times, why does Rafa need to add anthing?

Would he jump ship to Real Madrid if Manuel Pellegrini gets the Bernabeu bullet?

- He himself has answered this a million times. My god you get paid for this, yes?

Questions, questions. And another, who is Benítez accountable to now?

- The board. I just needed common sense for that one Henry

United lose at home in the CL, Everton increase their run to 1 win in 10 but your focus.... Anfield?

Oh and a question for you that I really do need the answer to. If my aunty had balls would that make her my uncle? If you could do a story on my aunty's balls that would be great. It's been bothering me for ages and let's be honest, it would make for a much better article than the one you wrote!

LFC - Blame Game Decisions - Part Three (Forums, Spirit of Shankly and Fans)

2009-11-25T12:46:00.000Z

It could be time to sell Torres and Gerrard and rebuild our squad with the proceeds.

Ryan Babel should be given a run of at least 10 games to build his confidence.

We must drop Kuyt because he is ineffective and useless.

Martin Kelly did well for a game, move Johnson to right midfield and play Kelly at right back for the rest of the season.

If Aquilani is sat on the bench then he's obviously fully fit, so play him.

and finally....

Get rid of Benitez and bring back Souness!

Internet Forums

How does it look to you. Is that a blueprint for success? Well take the combined 'expertise' from some forum contributors or 'experts' as some would say and this is what you end up with. I guess we're all entitled to our opinions but some, when stacked up like above, just beggar belief.

This is even before we get onto the vile contribution from other 'experts' who seem to be unable to string together a full sentence without the use of f***, sh** or cu**. These types of 'experts' are most dangerous when forum hunting in a pack I have found.

Now, don't get me wrong everyone is quite rightly entitled to their point of view. I have actually only started interacting in forums over the past couple of months. My expectations of what I might find were possibly just a bit too high though. I expected reasoned debate backed with some sort of evidence of logical thinking, interjected from time to time by the odd idiot. What I have found is a bit different, or perhaps the exact opposite in some cases. A lot of people (not all) seem to have a fixed point of view and you can't shift them no matter what evidence you produce. Others have very little to back up their point of view and seem to be working on a hunch or what they were told.

Knowledge is power but a little knowledge is just downright dangerous. This is where I have the biggest problem with forums. None of us contributors have the whole picture. We don't know who's playing well in training, has a slight knock, has full match fitness etc. But yet we take 50 - 75% of the information available and pass absolute judgements on players, managers and the club as a whole. Then when you reduce the knoweldge gap by providing evidence, well if it was on the phone it would be like this...

'Expert': Rafa doesn't bring through players like Wenger, why can't we get Wenger. Rafa is sh** at bringing through players.

Fact Based Expert: Do you realise that he has only recently had full control over the academy set up and here's the evidence? So really it's a bit unfair to level that accusation at him. We need to judge him over the next few years don't we?

'Expert': ... *click*

Fact Based Expert: hello?

I think you all know my views on Rafa if you read part 2 (CLICK HERE for PART 2) of this series. There are contributing factors with a weight of evidence behind them as to why patience is required. On the other side there is.... urm... well bad results. Short term views aren't helping anyone. We are in this for the long haul. Does anyone believe that without our injuries we would be so far behind? Yet people enter forums with a gut feeling or a reaction to a bad result. They seem to have already forgotten how well we did last season. Yet 6 months later we have the worst manager ever and now all his knowledge, that guided us so near last season, dropped out of his head. Now he's rubbish.

But here's the contradiction for every 100 posts in a forum a small percentage are well presented and researched arguments. They make sense and I nod my head and I think yes I agree with that, even if I didn't before, you have persuaded me. It's usually those posts that are followed by "you p*ick you don't know what you're on about' though. So I shake my head and between the nodding and the shaking I start to feel dizzy and slightly nauseous.

So, on the whole, I don't like forums. They're not places to go to talk things over or foster support at times of trouble like now. They're places to go and put forward a point of view without proper research and to generally have a go. The wheels are falling off, quick replace the driver. But that won't help and here is a full list of scientific research to show why the driver won't make any difference to the nuts holding the wheels on....... hello?

Spirit of Shankly

I really like the concept of a supporters union and I admire some of the work which is being conducted by SOS. At first I was concerned that it was a 'closed shop' and that interaction with them would be restricted. This has not been my experience to date. I have communicated with them on several occasions and they have responded with their point of view and encouraged me to attend a meeting. They have been continually open and courteous with me as I emailed question after question.

I do wonder though whether their initial raison d'etre will hamper them in the future. They will not be shaken in their conviction that the owners of the club are bad for it. I applaud the conviction of their belief but I think they could end up the wrong way of a one way alley. They have gone on the record as stating that they will not change their views and that, to me, was a mistake.

We are fast approaching deadlock. The owners of the club cannot be forcibly removed and they are hard nosed businessmen. Demonstrations or any other actions will not bother them while the club continues to improve commercially, which it is doing. They will only take action when they see it hit their wallets. I am unsure if SOS can generate the following it needs to effect this kind of change.

So the general bad feeling created continues and a section of the fan base continues to be unhappy. The danger persists that the corporate image may be tarnished and this could do immense damage to the club. SOS may then find a larger section of fans protesting about their actions.

I also have a genuine concern that within forums more 'hardcore / direct action' splinter groups are being discussed. They may be separate from SOS but they may damage by association, which would be a shame.

I know SOS has a sizeable following and I am one person. I would just ask them to consider the idea of 'peace time' again. We have enough to worry about on the pitch at the moment and is a year really going to make that much of a difference? Strategically I am sure it will be to their benefit, one way or the other.

The Fans

We are respected the world over and I don't believe many clubs have the special bond created between club and fans. We are known for our ability to stand by our club no matter what and we sing you'll never walk alone to re-emphasise the point at any given time.

It worries me though that the special relationship between club and fans is changing. Maybe its just my reaction to our current predicament. I have only really started interacting with the fans and club during this torrid time. Maybe it's down to the new owners or the 'situation' with the new owners. I really don't know but what I do know is that we don't just support 'the team' we support Liverpool Football Club. That means we support the manager, the staff, the players and even the cones used for training. At this moment in time our club needs our support. Not just the team, every level of the club needs our support.

To me that means:

- one huge voice at every game no matter what

- seeing #ynwa trending on twitter during every game

- everyone behind the manager until we're losing like this without clear reasons

- no demonstrations until, at least, we are over our blip

- support for every player whether they are playing good or bad

You see if we do this, if we just concentrate on supporting our club at this moment in time while the chips are down. No one can say that the famous 12th man didn't do his bit!

The Blame Game

There is no one individual to blame for our problems. We have a culmination of factors and errors. We're getting a bit like a soap opera. but don't look for one hook to hang it all on. We win together, we lose together and we stand together always. The blame game is about recognising that multiple factors are causing failure not one.

Some are blaming Rafa, some the owners, some the players, some the fans, some think it's all down to Dirk Kuyt. Add in injuries and poor form and the answer is in there somewhere... spread against all of them, except Dirk Kuyt! Rafa isn't infallible but he is recognised as one of the top managers in the world and he wants to be at Anfield. The owners have made mistakes but the commercial success off the pitch is improving. Some players had bad form but have now improved. Injuries are easing and hopefully the short term problems will be rectified quickly. Longer term I still believe in exactly how things are going now.

I hope the blame game has come to an end with this post, starting at Goodison!

LFC Points Production Ltd. - Open Letter to Business Today

2009-11-22T19:48:00.001Z

If Liverpool Football Club was as 'ordinary' business, I wonder whether a letter asking for advice might look like this...

Dear Business Today,

I could really do with some business advice from you and I hope you can help.

Our business uses foot-e-ball machines to manufacture official premier league points. The business had been performing ok for a number of years when a decision was taken to replace the general manager. When the new manager arrived he brought with him a unique patented system of improving our foot-e-ball machines. He owns the patent and is therefore crucial, we believe, to the future success of making good quality premier league points. In fact we were awarded the runner up spot in the Premier League Points Awards 2008/9.

One of the key benefits of the new manager's systems is that he was able to considerably improve the efficiency and general performance of our existing machines. We were then able to make more premier league points than we had ever done in the past. In addition to this, through his knowledge and contacts, he purchased new foot-e-ball machines and then added his patented systems for improvement. Now I have to confess that some foot-e-ball machines were not compatible with his systems but on the whole the effects have been astonishing.

They were so astonishing that all of a sudden competitors were approaching us to buy some of our foot-e-ball machines. Some of the offers couldn't be turned down so all of a sudden we were making major profits out of our machines as well as improving our points production. This has allowed for our net costs to be substantially reduced across the business. For example the Alonso-T5536 machine was one of the first machines he bought and modified, we have recently sold it for a £20m profit because of the value added by the new manager's processes. Other example include the Crouch-Tallman - £4m profit, Bellamy-Crazyman2000 - £1.5m profit and the Sissoko-Destroyer2Z - £2.5m profit.

While the benefits from some of our slower production machines have been substantial. Our high efficiency machines, the Pepe-Stops897 and Torres-Destroyer, are now indispensable to our business but are each probably worth at least 3 times more than what we bought them for (at least £50m profit). Even one of the machines we have had for years (our most efficient points producer before the arrival of the new manager, the Gerrard-Dynamic-X4) has, we believe, increased efficiency and value since the adoption of the manager's new systems.

You are probably wondering what the problem is. Well recently there have been some maintenance issues out of the manager's control. We lent some machines out and they came back damaged and some other machines have had other problems. Of course everyone is looking at our general manager rather than the managers of the companies we lent the machines to or the maintenance manager. I am coming under increasing pressure from a small section of our customer base to replace him. However, I am confident that the manager will continue to add value to our business and win lots of new awards longer term.

How can I possibly get rid of a manager who is improving our points production (when the machines don't have maintenance issues) and continually increasing the asset value of the business?

What should I do?

Your sincerely,

Chris Parslow

LFC - Title Contenders or 4th Place Scrappers?

2009-11-22T14:22:00.000Z

I missed the start of the game yesterday. I was soon shaking my head so violently at the news of two more injuries it nearly fell off when I caught up though! Despite the obvious knock on effect to the game plan and with all things considered the result could have been a lot worse by the time 90 minutes had elapsed.

I, like many a red, came into this season with raised expectations. After coming so close last season, with the addition of Glen Johnson in particular and despite the loss of Alonso, I expected us to be contenders until the death at least. 13 Games in and a revision of expectations given our start, as painful as it may be, is called for.

However, before I change our moniker from 'title contender' to 'CL qualifier' I wanted to assess some stats. Now don't get me wrong I am not about to state that we'll still win it and tell you to have hope. There are some interesting things to take into consideration though before I 'change the name title on the door'.

Last Season

This time last season we were sat 8 points ahead of the eventual Premiership champions, albeit with a game in hand. We had scored 21 goals and conceded a miserly 8, averaging less than one a game. This season we sit 8 points behind the Premiership champions. We are obviously doing something right as our goals to date this season are up to 29, ahead of United's 26.

But as with everything there is a fly in the ointment, well two to be precise. Chelsea are a further 5 points ahead of United and look (to me at least) to be the team to beat this season based on their current form. We have also conceded a lot more goals this season, perhaps because of an increased priority on attacking but it's more likely down to injuries, mistakes and poor form to date.

On a good run? Let's keep it up!

Some things are just out of your control as a Manager. Our recent run of injuries are testament to this. The African Cup of Nations could be Chelsea's downfall in the new year though. Yes, they have a strong squad and the funding to buy new players in January (although Ancelotti has suggested this won't happen) but they will lose Essien, Drogba, Kalou and Obi Mikel. With the consequences of the tournament usually taking their toll well into February the teams they face from January to mid February (Hull, Sunderland, Birmingham, Burnley, Arsenal and Everton) will be a little more optimistic than normal; and will hopefully 'up their game'. I wish the teams they face were a bit stronger but a bit more belief than normal may bring some surprising results. If not... well I don't see anyone getting past them!

A Merry Xmas?

In the run up to and including Christmas Chelsea have tough games (top 6 sides) against Arsenal (A), Man City (A) and Everton (H) before then running into Portsmouth (H), West Ham (A), Birmingham (A) and Fulham (H). The first three of these game will be critical to their ongoing success.

Alex Ferguson is probably rubbing his hands as during the same time frame United will face Portsmouth (A), West Ham (A), Villa (H), Wolves (H), Fulham (A), Hull (A) and Wigan (H). Arsenal will have a tougher time against Chelsea (H), Stoke (H), Liverpool (A), Burnley (A), Hull (H), Villa (H) and Portsmouth (A).

Us? Well a mixed bag starting with the derby against Everton (A), then onto Blackburn (A), Arsenal (H), Wigan (H), Portsmouth (A), Wolves (H) and Villa (A).

Another Springboard?

The win over United should have proven to be a springboard to winning games and building confidence. With key players coming back from injury I don't think there could be a better time to face Everton (even at Goodison). We need a game with passion and a game to build confidence and start getting this season back on track. From there we need to continue building confidence. Benitez said that the game against City was important, I believe Everton could and should prove to be our turning point.

I'm not going to be as bold to even hint that we'll be Premiership champions come May. However, I am going to say this...

We haven't through the loss of one player and within a few months gone from being Premiership contenders to having to scrap for fourth place. We have had an awful run of injuries and poor form from key players. I've seen enough to hope that we can pull ourselves into contention. I've seen enough results to know that the league is stronger this season and results not necessarily as assured as they once were. We need that springboard and then to build upon it... and we need it now! We can only focus on ourselves and let the other teams worry about their results and we need a winning run.

I'm going to leave our current 'title' on the door for now and review it again on the first of January. Hopefully at that point I'll be scheduling in another review for mid February.

LFC - Blame Game Decisions - Part Two (Rafa Benitez) Take 2

2009-11-20T16:49:00.000Z

Ok. So maybe I just needed some positivity to balance out the pure volume of negativity. Paul Tomkins delivered the positivity, followed by others and Robbo was right. Once you start, it is so hard to stop writing these bloody things.

So although I have given away the ending. Part two of the blame game continues here.

The original blame game article can be found HERE

Part one of the blame game decisions (the owners) can be found HERE

This post is so much more difficult for me and maybe a bit out of my comfort zone. With the owners I conducted research on balance sheets, P&L's and the financial backers. Facts and data were easy to come by. I do this kind of thing for a living and am on the third year of my masters degree studying pretty much the same things. Business and the realities of business decision in the post credit crunch era come easy to me.

I looked for Rafa's balance sheet and his P&L but alas nothing. So I'll start with my thoughts before these postings. Rafa in my opinion is one of the best managers in Europe, or indeed the world. It amazes me that even though Real Madrid are reportedly lining up their third/fourth attempt to lure him away from Anfield and taking his impressive record to date in Spain and with Liverpool there are some who think his time should be up.

Now I have been accused of suggesting that he should be beyond reproach and not held accountable for our current run. This is not my opinion. In football, as in business, you work your way to the top. In most cases it's not about money or material things but a desire to succeed and some part of you (as mad as it sounds) wants the pressure. That is certainly, at this moment in time, what he has... pressure. He is the man in charge of our football club on the pitch and for a multitude of reasons the team is not delivering on a consistent basis. Having visited forums aplenty, depressing me with every mouse click, there appear to be common complaints about Rafa:

The team are not playing to their potential and we're losing

Well the team is injury riddled and other players have hit bad form at exactly the wrong time. We have a team which can beat any other team in the world - when all players are playing to their full capabilities. But then look at what I consider our starting XI and mark off where injuries or bad form have occured.

Reina - Good form and no injuries

Johnson - Injured

Carragher - Poor form at start of season

Agger - Injured

Aurelio - Injured

Kuyt - Fair form and no injuries

Mascherano - Poor form at start of season

Aquilani - Injured

Riera - Injured

Gerrard - Injured

Torres - Injured

Only two players out of eleven have been able to compete fully all season so far (and we're only 12 games in). Let's be honest if United turned up at Anfield without Rooney and Ferdinand, or, Chelsea without Lampard and Drogba we'd be rubbing our hands and banking the three points in our mind. What is more devastating is that the blame for our key injuries don't lie anywhere near Anfield. International injuries, long term problems and a freak accident at home accounting for most!

The only blame that lies at Rafa's door is Aquilani. Now he may turn into an Anfield legend and everyone will forget about these early days. At the moment though a fit creative midfielder may have made the difference to our early season run. This, he has to accept responsibility for. That said everyone was probably relatively comfortable when he first arrived. No one expected the injuries to hit us like they have.

He has blundered his way through the transfer market

Sorry! He has what? Ok, let me be honest about this. I too at one point questioned his transfer dealings. The problem being that you tend to focus in on the 'bad buys' without giving full consideration to the whole picture.

In the big buys section Rafa has performed exceptionally well. Players like Torres, Mascherano, Alonso, Kuyt and Johnson have all been successful while a brief view of Aquilani looks promising. We don't have the cash reserves to always buy big so Rafa has had to delve into the bargain basement to mid-range quite often. Here is where you end up with more of a mixed bag but there have been impressive signings such as Reina, Agger, Skrtel, Benayoun, Crouch, Luis Garcia and Riera. Other signings in this range have not really worked out, but all have provided varying degrees of contribution. Players like Morientes, Bellamy, Pennant and Gonzales seemed to struggle for one reason or another. The freebies to date haven't really worked out (apart from Aurelio), but they were free. From a business perspective players have generally been moved on for a profit under Benitez.

However... the clangers! Ryan Babel was not only courted by Liverpool Football Club, indeed I'm sure we had to fight to sign him. The guy quite clearly has the raw materials and it scares me to death that he will be an instant success elsewhere. On his day he is a formidable player, it's just that in a red shirt those days are few and far between, so far. To date though this signing has been a failure when you consider who could have been bought with the money, hindsight!

Lucas Leiva is possibly a warning shot about the dangers of letting Babel go. At the end of last season Lucas was considered by some as inconsistent and needing to be pushed through the door. During our injury spell this season though I believe he has been a silver lining. Against United, in my opinion, he was MOTM and he has put in other good performances since. He's not first team but he is a good squad player with potential for the future. That said we can't wait for Babel to shine forever.

Robbie Keane, well I'm still a bit bamboozled by it all to be honest. Did he not fit the system? Were there personality problems? God knows, but he was sold back at break-even subject to contractual conditions. There was obviously some underlying problem, although boy could we have done with him this season.

Significantly more success than failure though, with a squad which needed overhauling from day one. All of this achieved with an c.£80m net spend. When you consider the whole picture it would, in my opinion, be unfair to criticise Rafa's transfer dealings, unless you're looking for perfection but I'm not sure who has a perfect transfer record.

Mr. Motivator?

This, I believe, is one of Rafa's weaknesses. We all have them and we're, none of us, perfect. I actually suspect that as a manager he is quite introvert, very much like yours truly. There would appear to be a weight of evidence (player comments etc.) which would substantiate this.

Now let me go back to my business roots and out of football for a minute. Remember that while football is not the same as business in many ways, core management theories remain the same throughout all organisations (football clubs included).

With annual revenues of c.£60bn and an operating income of c.£3bn Tesco is the modern day story of success. Having successfully secured the majority of the UK market it is now extending its global reach. The man at the top? Unfortunately an Evertonian but Sir Terry Leahy has a self confessed introverted management style. Despite this he was instrumental in Tesco's UK dominance and it's ongoing globalisation plan. How? Well part of being a successful man at the top is in creating a team around you which compensates for your own weaknesses.

Back in LFC world I do not believe the return of Sammy Lee following the departure of Pako Ayestaran is coincidence. I also don't believe Rafa is in denial about his weaknesses. His ego not being as big as portrayed in the media. He is doing what any good Manager would do by building a management team with different skills and strengths as one complete unit around him.

He doesn't bring through players like Arsene Wenger

We are probably, in my opinion, about 40% of the way through a strategic plan to bring long term success to the club. It is true that success in bringing through players has been limited in recent years. However, it is only very recently that Rafa has had control over the youth set up. Since he's had control he has appointed new key men at the helm of the youth/academy set up and updated how things are done to be more in line with continental thinking.

It is simply unfair to even try and judge Rafa at this juncture in relation to bringing through players. He has not had chance to bed in his new ideas and we will need to come back to this one in the future.

What is it with crazy tactics and substitutions?

On this one I'm 50/50. There is no denying that Rafa has made some genius critical decisions which have turned games around. But then at the same time there are substitutions or players played out of position which leave me bamboozled.

However, we always have to accept that Rafa and his team have much more information pitch side than we ever have. We don't usually know if a player has a niggling injury or has been under the weather or even just looks tired. Also, most of the decision have little affect, some have a positive one while others (in the minority I suspect) have a negative outcome. Which ones do we generally remember most?

Dirk Kuyt should be dropped and others given a chance

I have seen people suggesting that Babel should be given a run in Kuyt's place. Now Dirk Kuyt to me is not scintillating and, in my opinion, has a lack of pace to be a fully effective out and out winger. But, and it's a big but... he is consistent and provides more defensive cover for Johnson allowing for him to be more effective. As a partnership on the right I believe it has the correct balance.

He also features regularly in the top 10 of the Actim index both generally and in an attacking sense. I'm not sure what people want, other than maybe a scapegoat?

Some have suggested moving Johnson up to right midfield with Kelly coming in at right back. Now is not the time to be trying things out. Especially at a time when we need stability and consistency. I do not believe he should be dropped; but he should not be beyond dropping. I really don't see a better alternative within our squad at the moment.

Didn't even mention his work-rate!

Summary

Rafa Benitez is not beyond reproach and should we continue to lose without good reason (of which there are plenty at the moment) then, and only then, should he be asked to step down. Those calling for his head now are, in my opinion, looking only at the short term situation rather than the long term plan. A plan which I believe at the end of this 5 year contract will have delivered dividends.

Expectations have played a key role. After last season we came into this expecting to be in contention from the start to end of the season. There are lots of reasons why it hasn't panned out that way and the fans feel let down. The results this season have been disappointing to date and we now have to painfully re-assess our expectations. No one likes lowering them, but this is a dip and not, in my opinion the end. I am confident that Rafael Benitez is the right man to take us to the end game... we just need some patience.

Longer term he needs time for the academy set up to be overhauled so we can judge him on bringing through players and shorter term he needs a fully fit team to be out there so we can start winning again. We have a team which can compete for the title, I don't believe we have enough quality throughout the squad and therefore injuries tend to hit us harder. There is no getting away from the factual information available about our injury crisis.

I will be interested to re-assess this blog entry at the end of the season!

Note: I may edit this post after. I'm in a rush (Sarah is nagging me) and I wanted to get this post out before our game today. Come on LFC..... YNWA!

RANT - Balance People - that's all it needs!

2009-11-17T10:08:00.000Z

I'm due in a meeting but something has been gnawing at me! I saw a post on Twitter yesterday which said "Rafa net spend under Hicks and Gillett = £35m; Interest paid to banks from 02/2007 to 07/2008 = £45m. Who could we have bought with that?" I haven't quoted the initial source as I do like the source and believe them to be well intentioned.

Now I understand the brevity of Twitter but there was no balance. I am NOT sticking up for H&G but arguments like this in my mind are quickly dis-regarded as they have no balance.

The pre-tax profit last year of LFC was £10m. While the fans don't want debts that would mean that we couldn't have bought anyone for £45m. So we had £10m available for a player purchase not £45m. But hold on, this is a 2 year period. We lost £22m the year before so if we don't want debts we'll now need to sell someone.
Our debts (as I have now stated numerous times) are dwarfed by our nearest competitors. In the same period that LFC paid £46.5m in interest, MUFC paid £89.5m and AFC £65m. Only CFC are immune as they are bankrolled by and reliant upon Abramovich.

Balance an argument. I like to think my recent postings if nothing else have been balanced!

By the way what is it that people want? Plenty of new players, indeed plenty of new £20m+ players, commercial success, new stadium etc. but no debts please, we don't want debts. So really you want Abramovich. You want the club to be entirely reliant upon one person and if that person fails our club disappears? No? You want the fans to own the club. A noble idea but once the first flush of funding is gone what are you doing? Going back cap in hand every time for more money to invest?Surely you won't put the club in debt.

I'm sorry this is a rant! But it was avoidable by a balanced argument in the first place. Statements with balance have power, without, I'm afraid they look agenda driven.

Blame Game Decision - Part Two (Rafael Benitez) - SORRY!

2009-11-16T08:45:00.001Z

Urm.... well.... ok honestly, I can't be doing with the level of grief associated with writing blog entries about LFC. I had hoped that balanced arguments backed with facts may in some small way make a difference. I was naive.

So I'll give you a quick summary of MY OPINIONS on everything else. They're not right or wrong they are opinions so I won't be publishing any comments on this post.

Rafa Benitez - is the right person to move LFC forward. He has only recently had full control over the youth set up and has brought in a management team, which I imagine is envied across Europe. Given time he will deliver, but we need to be patient. There are reasons why Real Madrid continue to be linked with him - he is one of the best coaches / managers in Europe and we are lucky to have a manager who gives his all to our club.

Spirit of Shankly - I admire the 'other work' they do and continue to believe that the concept is impressive. I do not agree with their original raison d'etre but believe they have the potential to be an influential and positive force for LFC. I can see the concept being replicated by others. The dangers are that when you visit forums I can see more hardcore / direct action orientated 'splinter cells' forming in the future. SoS may find themselves guilty by association. I have engaged with SoS by email etc. on several occasions and found them willing to listen if not be convinced.

Forums - WOW, some of them are just plain ridiculous others are filled with hate and intimidation. Not what I was expecting or hoping for. I am sure there are good forums out there but I haven't found an 'adequately controlled' one yet which allows for positive contributions to debate.

Paul Tomkins (@paul_tomkins) - I like his optimism and he sees things that I don't from a team perspective, but once pointed out I usually agree with him. I am half way through his latest book which is, to mid way through, an excellent eye opening read. He also re-tweeted mysecond blog entry. Thanks Paul.

Liverpool-Kop.com (Jaimie Kanwar) - Jaimie and I don't usually agree on much in relation to team / Rafa etc. I can see where some of the criticism about him comes from and I really am not sure whether he does just push forward ideas to be sensationalist or whether they are just his honest opinions. Either way, as a bi-product, he does get people talking - which is good. He also re-posted two of my blog entries and got them to a wider audience. Thanks Jaimie (I think :-) )

Gareth Roberts (@robbohuyton) - We're on different sides of the argument in relation to H&G but he's listened to my point of view and I his. We've both conceded on some discussions and I wish there were more open minded and coherent fans like him out there. Definitely worth a follow on Twitter! Thanks Robbo!

Right so if you're anti H&G you're not here anyway, if you want to listen to me babble about LFC more.... tough! I will continue to post about business issues if that interests any of you. The local council is my next target.... should they be run like private businesses?

Oh and out of all this my dissertation for my Masters degree will be in relation to LFC and the way it is run. I will have research to conduct and may need some help..... I won't be blogging about it though, but may call on some of you for assistance!

LFC - Blame Game Decisions - Part One (The Owners) [Amended]

2009-11-11T21:26:00.001Z

Three weeks ago I posted my first blog entry about Liverpool Football Club. The football club I have followed since my first long term memories formed. The majority of my family follow LFC, seemingly because my Uncle used to play for 'us'. My first shirt didn't even have a sponsor on it and Mum always struggled to get it off my back for the wash. These days, on the launch of pretty much every new kit I pick up my son and head to the nearest sports store.

However, I became increasingly frustrated with the blame culture surrounding the club. So I wrote my first LFC related blogpost about 'the blame game' and how everyone was looking for a single individual or group to blame. I didn't agree that any single person or group was to blame in isolation and therefore set out my thoughts. I then slowly got sucked into forums and tweets, particularly in relation to the business side of LFC. Being a company director myself I had a certain amount of empathy for our owners and senior management, but yet the more you hear the more you wonder about no smoke without fire.

So three weeks on and I have interacted in forums, emailed numerous people and tweeted till my fingers went numb. All with varying degrees of success. However, I think I'm at the precipice of making informed decisions, so here goes. [Update: I have now updated this post in light of comments made on the original posting which made me reflect on things and put forward new ideas. All shown in italics]

The Owners

I have been asked what H&G have brought to the club. I believe we have a much better playing squad and significant additions have been made (Mascherano, Torres, Johnson, Aquilani). Now I realise that we have had money in from player sales but I don't believe these players would have been signed pre H&G. They have improved the commercial success of the club significantly with new sponsorship deal etc. Why are all the good things down to Christian Purslow and all the bad H&G? We need to continue improving the commercial revenues to drive profits so we can buy more quality players. But this will take time.

The main areas of concern surrounding the owners appear to be about debts and lies. The consensus of those who are anti H&G seems to be that H&G lied about:

- not putting debts onto the club

- the now famous "shovel in the ground within 60 days" statement

In assessing these 'lies' I wanted to be absolutely clear in my own mind that H&G made statements with an intention to deceive. The actual definition of lie being 'a falsehood uttered or acted for the purpose of deception'. So I find a lie and I can then be clear in my own mind that I should be anti H&G. Well you'd think so wouldn't you? The problem being in this case that there is very little chance of really knowing whether there was an intention to deceive. There are grey areas in relation to the exact quotes, or, feasible reasons for a change of plan within every alleged lie. I also kept coming back to the question of 'why would they lie and what have they gained out of it'?

The debts on the club argument I believe comes about from a very early interview with George Gillett. During the interview he said "We have purchased the club with no debt on the club, so I think in that regard it is different (from the Glazer deal)", it was then a reporter who suggested "Unlike Glazer, who saddled United with borrowings of $1.1 billion, Liverpool's new owners said their offer would leave the club debt-free". These are two completly different statements; only one of which are attributable to the owners. Having reviewed the accounts for Liverpool Football Club it is clear that at one point, following the purchase of the club, the club itself was indeed debt free.

I have found no evidence to suggest that either H or G stated the club would always be debt free. So I am reasonably satisfied, having found no direct quote to substantiate the claim, that they did not lie about this.

Whether they lied or not we currently have a reported £245m of debts within the group of companies. Having conducted my own assessment on our clubs debts in comparison to the other 'top four' clubs I quite conclusively proved that our debts are nowhere near as high as the other top clubs. You have to speculate to accumulate. Everyone wants Liverpool to be successful and this requires a direct synergy between on and off the pitch, both of which at this time require investment. It is also important to note that the bulk of those debts are on the holding company, more about that later.

I moved onto the shovel in the ground in 60 days statement. This was always portrayed to me as something which was a cast iron guaranteed statement from either H or G. Indeed spirit of Shankly include a video of this statement on their website. Again I find no promises or cast iron guarantees. George Gillett stated in February 2007 "The shovel needs to be in the ground within, what,(turning to Rick Parry) the next 60 days or so? (after Parry agrees) and we intend to follow that." My belief is that this is not a promise but a statement of intent. There are two mitigating factors which then took this intention off track.

The world credit markets became strangled by the credit crunch. The IMF expects that the world's losses will total $2.8 trillion by the time it is over. These were, indeed are, unprecedented times and possibly the worst financial calamity of modern times. As each month passed from January 2007 the tightening of the credit markets increased to a peak in September 2008. Banks collapsed and the world's governments had to step in to bail out banking institutions and large corporations. During this time America's wealthiest people are expected to have lost a quarter of their wealth. The facts cannot be denied and I find it interesting that, it would appear, some expect a 'protective credit crunch bubble' to have formed around Anfield. It has been noted elsewhere that even Abramovich has lost a considerable amount of wealth during this period, all while his club creeps up to owing him £1bn! Let's see if those loans stay interest free if the hard times hit shall we?
It has been suggested that the original plans for the club were not acceptable to H&G and new architects were quickly brought in to re-design the stadium. I have seen comments suggesting that the original plans (of which I have some up on my office wall) were simply not good enough and the plans put in place by Moores and Parry not realistically achievable. Question - why spend millions of pounds on preparation for a new stadium you never intend to build if you are simply here to cash in?

The fans were however quite clearly under the impression that work was imminent on the new stadium in January 2008 after the following statements. Hicks in January 2008 (months after the commonly accepted start date for the credit crunch):

“With the refinancing process now done, club supporters can look forward to the timely commencement of construction work on the new stadium and renew their focus on actions on the pitch."

A month before Rick Parry had told fans:

“The situation in the credit markets has not affected our design, programme, or implementation of building our new stadium. The priority has always been to build a winning team on the pitch and everything else we do is geared towards that."

These quote were provided to me and I verified them. They caused me to re-think my initial posting and I have to confess this update was nearly very different. However, it dawned on me that there was something neither I or others had thought of. Which I believe adds weight to the credit crunch theory.

So lets start a timeline from January 2008, the date of the last comment provided. Hypothesise that everyone's happy and the bank are making the 'right noises' about continued backing after already recently providing £350m of new funding. Then look at the backers in question, RBS and Wachovia. In April 2008 RBS attempted a rights issue to try and raise £12bn as it battled against the credit crunch and asset write downs from ABN Amro. A sure sign of the rot setting in at the bank. By October of the same year the government had to step in and inject £37bn. Then turn your attention to Wachovia. In the second quarter of 2008 the bank lost £8.9bn, in June the CEO was ousted and a new one was in by July. In September the bank lost, in two days, £5bn of deposits and 27% of its stock value. On September 28th the regulators were concerned that the bank didn't have enough short term funds to open the next day. The bank was then bought out by Citigroup in a deal forced upon Wachovia by the US government and regulators.

While the Hicks and Parry statements were made months after the credit crunch started, the credit crunch did not affect the banks who were backing LFC until after the statements. The timing fits in perfectly with having to put the stadium on hold. Within 9 months of Hicks' statement both of the banks had effectively collapsed, the blame for this not resting anywhere near Anfield. So the banks come back this year in the new era of ultra cautiousness and demand a repayment of £60m, which was paid. So now we have to find new ways of funding the stadium, which from what I can see is happening.

I have listened to the recordings on the spirit of Shankly website and yes there is contradictory information given by Gillett, but I assume this was an 'off the hoof' meeting, which was possibly confused by the facts stated (especially in relation to the 60 days comment). Is it possible that George Gillett says that Tom Hicks must have promised the shovel in the ground because neither of them promised it? Is it possible that contradictory dates are given for the credit crunch because there is not a specific day it started (as noted above)? More questions, no answers, no concrete proof.

I'm not getting into the expenses row. The Kop Football holding company is entirely the personal property and liability of H&G, within it lies the asset of Liverpool Football Club. They are entitled, with the confines of the law, to extract whatever money they want from it. You see there's the kicker the debts we are all up in arms about. Well the bulk of them appear to be the personal liabilities of H&G.

For those worrying about the possibilty of Liverpool being the next Leeds. Leeds' turnover (in the run up to it going into administration) was less than half of Liverpool Football Club and the football club posted a £50m loss in 2003. My brief research into what would happen if Kop Holdings became insolvent strongly indicates that the football club would not be severely affected. During my research I found the following quote from law notes "However, no court has yet found subsidiary companies liable for their holding company’s debts." I also came across a news story in relation to Thomas Cook, whose parent company became insolvent. They continued to trade normally and the shares in the company were then sold on by the receivers of the parent company. This is more than likely, in my opinion, to be what would happen to Liverpool Football Club in this scenario.

So the club (to the best of my understanding) has £105m of debts which is up by £60m post H&G. For that £60m the club has the planning permission and 'soft costs' met for the stadium and an improved playing squad. The clubs wage bill jumped up £12m in the last financial year and will no doubt jump up again this financial year, in light of improved contracts and improved player acquisitions. Another matter that seems to often get overlooked is that during the H&G years the 50% stake in LFC TV was bought back from Granada at a cost of c.£15m. when you start looking at all of these 'improvements for the future' with a good spread across players, players' salaries, stadia and commercial improvements it is hard to understand why people feel the debts are being used for anything other than future prosperity.

I have heard concerns about a points deduction following the administration incident at Southampton Football Club. Again I believe this to be an entirely different situation. Southampton Football Club purposefully placed their holding company into administration to avoid the points deduction. The league reported "The holding company is solvent in its own right. It only becomes insolvent when account is taken of the position of Southampton football club and the other group companies." This is clearly not the position that Kop Holdings would find itself in.

I have been asked about the auditors comments at the end of the last financial year when they suggested that Kop Holdings may not be able to continue trading as a going concern.

There are three things to consider with the auditor's notes:

1. Auditors by law have to be ultra cautious. They get sent to prison if they aren't. This is obviously important with companies who are in the media spotlight.

2. They were talking about Kop Holdings and you have to separate the two companies out IMO. Kop Holdings would have been struggling. £42.6m loss and only £10m from its subsidiary available. Loan finance had dried up so an injection of capital was required. Which was provided.

3. Both the owners have recently sold other major assets. Hicks has also said our star players won't be sold. Now two things with that. I have noticed he stopped short of saying no players will be sold and we can't all be up in arms if, say, Mascherano leaves in the summer because he wants to.

So, an intention to lie or deceive? I still cannot find any concrete evidence of it and believe me I have looked. I always come back to the same old question, why lie? What benefit do they get from lying?

To me it makes little sense to plough millions into any company if you are just there to asset strip or cash in on it. I am also satisfied, based on the information collated to date, that the companies are solvent and improving. In the unlikely event of the club 'going under' it would simply be sold on by the banks and I do not believe the league would be likely to deduct points.

So where do I stand? Well as I started to be honest, which is H&G neutral. Mainly because, while I do not believe they have caused significant detrimental damage, they have made mistakes. Their own warring, the media attention and the Klinsmann incident mean that they have to prove they have learnt from past mistakes. They have to earn my trust as a fan. I also remain open to the possibility that while I haven't found evidence of lying, they may have been disingenuous at times. Although again I have found no real evidence of this.

I still strongly believe that the club could open up its communication channels and resolve most of this, if there truly is nothing to hide. However, have I seen evidence of enough harm being done to warrant me being anti H&G and wanting them out of the club? No. I also see improvements being made to the club commercially and I see the club moving forward. Our playing squad is stronger than it was, could it have more depth, well there's never enough depth is there?

I don't want Rafa to be handed an open chequebook and end up in the same position as Chelsea. People often overlook, because of his wealth, that the future of Chelsea Football Club is in the hands of one individual. If he fails believe me Chelsea Football Club will disappear! We have to be run as a profiting, successful and commercially astute business. This means debts and expenses and everything else that comes along with business. It is just the reality of the situation. The bonus - well off the pitch success is generally driven on the pitch so investment in the squad is, within prudent financial limits, assured.

FINAL NOTE: Please feel free to post your point of view. Feel free to disagree with me. But, convince me! Give me something to go on, something concrete. You see I've asked this of many anti H&G fans. Not one has yet delivered me a link or other evidence to validate their assertions. I'm happy to keep an open mind and I'm happy to join and go to demonstrations with spirit of Shankly if I am convinced it is the right course of action. It needs to be warranted and personally at the moment, it isn't.

Coming soon... Part Two - Rafael Benitez and Part Three - Spirit of Shankly, Forums and the Fans

Three reasons why Rafa will not be sacked

2009-11-05T21:59:00.000Z

We just don't seem to have any luck at the moment do we? 11 players come out and give there all for 90 minutes, dominating possession and playing football that some nay-sayers would question whether we were even capable of, with so many of our 'top' players missing.

I keep repeating the same mantra at the moment. Our full strength team, in form, can beat anyone in the world. For those interested I would have that team as Reina, Johnson, Carragher, Agger, Aurelio, Kuyt, Mascherano, Aquilani (hopefully), Riera, Gerrard and Torres.

Although mooted by recent standards the rumblings from some quarters still bring Rafael Benitez's career with LFC into question. For a man who has shaped our team into the one above and with a history of winning throughout his career this is, in my opinion, ill founded and laughable. Who exactly are we planning on replacing him with?

But before Rafa's future can even realistically be called into question at least two of the following need to happen.

Losing the backing of his players

One thing that was abundantly clear to me last night was that 11 men went out there to give there all for the club and their manager. Even those who do not get regular games gave their all. The one player who did pick up some criticism was Voronin but he was chasing everything and to be honest I thought he was just trying too hard, and thus forcing himself to make mistakes. I think the same is true, in part, of Benayoun. He was his usual skilful bag of tricks but at times near the end he looked like he just wanted to do it all. They were all giving their all.

Then I noticed something interesting following each near miss. Everytime something didn't quite go right there was a look to the bench; an apologetic look? Maybe it's just me but I took some of these desperate looks to Rafa as a sign of 'I'm so sorry'.

Managers who have lost their team do not play like our team did last night.

Losing the backing of the club's mangement

Well we can nip this one in the bud quite quickly can't we? There aren't many left in the upper echelons of the Anfield hierarchy to come out and publicly give Rafa their backing. George Gillett, Kenny Dalglish, Christian Purslow have all come out and backed Rafa and confirmed that he is there for the long haul and that, at the moment, we must all pull together and ride the storm.

Mention should also be given to other Premier League managers who have all come out and backed Rafa. Talking about the lunacy of a manager with Rafa's record attracting this kind of speculation. I agree with Paul Tomkins that Arsene Wenger needs a special mention for what he has recently said.

Losing the backing of the fans

They're fickle things some of them fans, always have been always will be. Ever demanding with aspirations that must be met, failure should not be an option. It's amazing that some think 11 games in and 9 points behind the leaders and 7 behind last season's champions is failure. We are nowhere near calling anything failure yet!

The short term view taken by some is astounding and I will ask again, where are we getting anyone better from? Rafa has a record admired by most, before and during his tenure at Liverpool, under what have been difficult circumstances. Then, despite the barrage of criticism from the media and some sections of the fan base, he comes out confident and quoting you'll never walk alone. You'll never walk alone unless you don't win the next few games? Doesn't sound like the Liverpool way to me!

Despite all of the above Rafa continues to enjoy support from the majority of fans. I have been in all sorts of forums over the past few weeks (enough to make my head spin) and I am confident that this is true. There are pockets of nay sayers, aren't there always? But on the whole he has not lost the fans' support. I always find it ironic that the press continue to talk about his cold, hard demeanour and yet he is idolised and /or respected by most of us.

So there you go 0 out of 3 at the moment and I don't see it changing anytime soon. I'll leave you with one final thought every Man U and Arsenal fan I know keeps going on about Rafa's time being up. Interestingly I was saying and hoping for the same thing when Ferguson's and Wenger's names were in the spotlight! When they start telling me we should give him a bit longer I'll start worrying.

Liverpool Football Club - Reasons for Optimism

2009-11-04T15:50:00.000Z

Despite the poor run of form recently and the ongoing pro Rafa 'v' anti 'Rafa' and pro H&G 'v' anti H&G there are reasons to remain optimistic about the future of our great football club.

We have recently signed an (at the time - since overtaken by Real Madrid's Bwin deal) world record equaling sponsorship deal with Standard Chartered bank. "I am tremendously excited," said Christian Purslow, the club's managing director, when the deal was signed. "It's a hugely important day in the history of Liverpool Football Club. "This is the largest commercial agreement we have ever entered into. To have attracted a partner of the calibre of Standard Chartered Bank says everything about where we are trying to take this football club."
Carlsberg are reportedly still interested in some sort of sponsorship deal, perhaps worth as much as the outgoing shirt deal.
We have today signed a further sponsorship deal with 188Bet for 3 years. "We are delighted to welcome 188Bet to our family of partners. Their innovative approach to betting will enhance the fan experience, in addition to benefiting good causes through the 188 Foundation," said Ian Ayre, commercial director of Liverpool Football Club.
Tom Hicks is reportedly close to a $500m windfall when he sells his baseball franchise. He has stated that this club and LFC are separate. But the man has money!

And if (although I doubt it will) it does all go pear shaped we continue to attract significant interest from investment parties. While everyone is aware of the potential Saudi deal, billionaire Robert Kraft has once again expressed a desire to invest in the English Premier League with Liverpool Football Club his preferred choice. Kraft has always insisted that some sort of salary cap is required in the EPL and Platini's recently announced plans for reform could well deliver that; re-igniting Kraft's desire to purchase our club according to reports. Platini's plans would also see all football clubs secure their own long term futures.

On the pitch we continue to have a major injury crisis; meaning we're needed more than ever! As far as I'm concerned we have a team (Reina, Aurelio, Carragher, Agger, Johnson, Kuyt, Mascherano, Aquilani, Riera, Gerrard and Torres) which, when fit, can beat anyone in the world! We just have to ride the storm at the moment!

So keep smiling Liverpool fans. Everyone can forget about worrying about finances and put aside any bickering for the next few hours and let's get behind our team as one!

You'll NEVER Walk Alone

P.S. @robbohuyton - maybe you were right about this bloody blog!

LFC - Time for Peace?

2009-10-29T18:21:00.000Z

Damn it! I said I wasn't doing another football related post. This isn't an LFC blog and I'm pretty sure I must have other interesting things to write about. But here's how it works. Yesterday I'm driving wondering what my next blog post might be about - politics, business, drugs, celebrity and I can't think of anything. Then today something triggers in my mind and my head goes 'that's a good blog entry' and well... here we are!

I have come across a bit of an enigma. Last week I posted on the site www.liverpool-kop.com about a point of view expressed which was similar to my own first LFC post. I commented and linked to my own story saying I was going to write about LFC's debts.

The site is run by Jaimie Kanwar someone I have never met and our total correspondence comprises of a few emails and tweets. After writing my post Jaimie asked if he could re-post it to his own site. I agreed and managed to get an insight into what it's like to run a site like his. I have had to respond numerous times to criticism, questions etc. and read comments which were not too flattering about my work.

This led me to reviewing more of Jaimie and his other writers' work and I think it would be fair to say that he does not shy away from controversy. On reading some of the responses it was becoming clear to me that he may actually be 'The Stig'. Between some valid points, some rantings and responses you can almost hear Jezza Clarkson "some say he's actually a Manchester United fan, some say he's in it for the advertising money while some would say he's a wannabe editor for the daily sport. We all know him as the Stig!"

There are some who accuse Jaimie of just finding the latest big LFC news and then purposefully putting forward or posting the 'view of the few' to promote a reaction. How true this is I guess only he knows. One thing is sure - with headlines like the following, criticism is always going to be forthcoming:

Crouch for sale as Rafa's irrational vendetta continues
Manchester United debacle once again exposes Steven Gerrard's lack of leadership ability
Why Liverpool cannont and should not sign David Villa
Rafa suffering from Houllieresque delusion of blandeur

However it is fair to say that there are often positive posts on the site. In the stories I have read an attempt is also made to back up the views with some form of rationalisation, even if it is not always accepted. He does not shy away from 'flip flopping' either and is happy to change his view point at a later date. Does this suggest an open mind or back up the 'sensationalist seeking' point of view?

If he is indeed The Stig then I guess his Richard Brunstrom would be SoS (Spirit of Shankly) who oppose the current ownership of the club. SoS is the Liverpool supporters union which was formed in January 2008. They are opposed to the current ownership of the football club and have the stated aim of holding the owners of the club to account.

Now, I will state again that I am Hicks and Gillett (H&G) neutral. But at the same time I am a realist and the realism of the situation is where SoS' biggest weakness lies in my opinion. They may well have some valid concerns, some of which have been shared amongst the majority of Liverpool fans, but their options and powers are limited. The most valid of concerns is the level of debts leveraged against the club. As per my last post I don't believe we are in as bad a position as painted by the media and I personally am relaxed about the club's finances. However, it has to be accepted that an additional c.£300m of debt is around the clubs neck post H&G. This is big money and concern is therefore understandable.

But the owners are financially accountable to their backers (the banks) and cannot be forcefully deposed by anyone else. So when it comes to the fans well, what can we do? Most of the actions available to us (stop going to the games, stop buying from the club shop, arrange demonstrations) in some way will damage the financial and / or commercial success of the club. This is as unpalatable as finding another club, so we end up in stalemate.

Stalemate is also where Jaimie ends up in most of his 'comment wars' following his posts. Sometimes we just have to accept that we're not going to agree. While all the trying to 'grind each other down' to accept another point of view simply serves to further damage the unity of the club as a whole.

Let's get personal. Last week I smiled at my girlfriend (an Everton fan by the way) and she didn't like it so a short argument took place. Obvioulsy there is a bit more to it than that but you'll be bored. Anyway I went to play squash while she stewed at home. I came home to a lady fixed in her belief that she deserved an apology. It wasn't forthcoming. I sent out a warning shot that 'we're not just going to agree on this so we should just forget about it'. Not good enough. So she shouted, I shouted, she called me several names not befitting her 'lady' title, I threw some things, broke some things and then she ended up in tears. Five minutes of silence were followed by me 'breaking the ice' and we agreed that we weren't going to agree (like I said at the start). Life is like that sometimes. You just have to get on with things accepting that damage can be avoided if you 'agree to disagree'.

Back to the football and I may be about to offer a simplistic view but while other clubs are limited to arguing over who they should buy, yesterday's result and the referee's mistakes we're collectively adding major arguments about our ownership and the financial structuring of the club. To our sponsors and prospective commercial partners it must appear like their is dis-harmony throughout every level of our football club. Not appealing is it?

I will say again that H&G's public outbursts played out in the media were stupid. However, they appear to have learnt and are at least displaying some sort of harmony for the world. The fans are not.

In relation to the club itself there is a significant weakness which exacerbates the problems. They do not, in my opinion, communicate effectively with the fans about their intentions or plans. They shouldn't need to justify their actions or endanger any competitive advantage they are looking for. However the amount of misinformation could, in my opinion, be reduced if we knew the high level strategies of the company direct from the club. Fans need to know 'from the horses mouth' that our debts can be managed and that the club is progressing towards the global football powerhouse it should be. Pre H&G our accounts and business overview were available from the club website. They are not anymore. They can be downloaded from companies house but why do we have to go looking for them and how many people know that? Little things like this promote the idea of a club trying to hide something.

One of the questions I asked myself as I was posting responses to my last blog entry was 'why am I having to justify our debts?' I didn't have all of the information required and was making judgements which were weakened because of this.

So, my opinions for you to shout at this time....

Should the fans have an opportunity to hold the football clubs owners to account? Yes, we do hold the ultimate power over the club and company as we are their consumers. LFC need to recognise this and work with SoS - I have noted that Christian Purslow has met with SoS and intends to do so again.
Is the current situation damaging our club? Yes, disharmony within the fanbase is always going to cause questions to be asked. Whether the future commercial success of our club will be hampered is still to be determined. I am confident it is not helping our prospects though.
Could LFC communicate with us better? Yes, I believe they can. We don't need to know everything. But it strikes me that a lot of the speculation and misinformation could be dealt with if the club opened up a bit more. In the same way that Rafa is the focal point for the team Christian Purslow should push himself forward as the focal point for the company. He appears to have the support of most LFC fans.
Should everyone have the opportunity to have their say and put their opinions out there? Yes, of course - we do live in a democratic country.
Are the constant 'comment wars', speculation and media intensity doing us any good? No, we're not getting anywhere. We're having the same conversation over and over again. Go and look at Jaimie's posts in relation to H&G. In some cases they are as near to being repeated verbatim as you can get!

What would I suggest? Well I think the fans need to come together as one and agree that we are going to have 12 months of 'peace time'. During the next 12 months we come together in unity behind our great football club. God knows after yesterday's result we need it!

That is not to say we forget about things. But consider this. We agree 12 months of harmony throughout the club. In 12 months' time if the debt situation has worsened without clear justification from the club, or, other detrimental things have happened SoS or whoever else will have gained the moral high ground. They will then be in a much stronger position to convince a larger number of fans, thus having a larger influence over the club. Looking through posts on many LFC sites and forums there is evidence of a softening towards H&G and a hardening towards SoS. I could be wrong about it but on some of the posts I see I believe a wind of change is underway.

For clarity, my position -

I don't care who owns our club.
I care very much who runs it and that it is run well with an overall target of turning LFC into a 'global football powerhouse'.
I am pro Rafa and believe if he can be given the tools he needs he is the right man
I am realistic that without equity investment we need to borrow money to grow and achieve our targets. This is for the good of the club longer term.
I believe our debts (as per my last post) are not as bad as the other 'top 4'clubs.
I believe the press have a tendency to pick up on LFC stories. Why shouldn't they? We are a globally recognised football club, the most successful football club in history. We're going to be a target. While there isn't general unity at every level of the organisation, including the fans, we'll keep feeding them stories.

Finally and critically I believe we should have 12 months of 'peace time'. No demonstrations, quiet on the forum front, no shouting at our owners when they appear. In 12 months things will have improved or have worsened. Either way things will have 'crinkled out' and we the fans won't have damaged our club's future prospects.